Brisbane Road · Referee Kirsty Dowle, England · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Leyton Orient vs AFC Wimbledon Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 1.07 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined total of 2.32. That distribution gives Leyton Orient the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 41% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
68.6% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 1.07
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leyton Orient home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
AFC Wimbledon away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Leyton Orient to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 28% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Leyton Orient and 1.07 for AFC Wimbledon, a combined 2.32 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.1%
- 1–012.3%
- 0–110.5%
- 0–09.9%
- 2–18.2%
Recent form
Leyton Orient
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackpool · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Bradford · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stevenage · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal U21 · 1-2 (L)
AFC Wimbledon
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge United · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Milton Keynes Dons · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Doncaster · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Bromley · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-02T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Burton Albion · 1-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 41%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.