Leyton Orient vs Blackpool Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.88 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 1.67 for Blackpool, a combined total of 3.55. That distribution gives Leyton Orient the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.1% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.88 – 1.67

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Leyton Orient home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Blackpool away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 8 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Leyton Orient win43%

Draw22%

Blackpool win35%

Double chance 1X

65%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals87%

Over 2.5 goals69%

Over 3.5 goals47%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–19.0%
2–18.5%
1–27.6%
2–27.1%
1–05.4%

Recent form

Leyton Orient

2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stevenage · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal U21 · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Wycombe · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bradford · 1-3 (L)

Blackpool

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Cambridge United · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-06T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Crewe · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Wigan · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bromley · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 0-1 Blackpool (League One)
2025-11-22T15:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 1-1 Blackpool (League One)
2025-03-15T15:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 2-1 Blackpool (League One)
2024-11-09T15:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 3-0 Blackpool (League One)
2024-02-27T19:45:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 1-0 Blackpool (League One)
2023-08-19T14:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 0-0 Blackpool (League One)
2017-05-06T16:30:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 1-3 Blackpool (League Two)
2016-11-19T15:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 1-2 Blackpool (League Two)

League One table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Plymouth	10	6	1	3	6	19
2	Bradford	9	5	2	2	3	17
3	Stockport County	9	5	1	3	9	16
4	Huddersfield	9	4	4	1	7	16
5	Cambridge United	9	4	4	1	3	16
6	Reading	9	4	3	2	11	15
7	Sheffield Wednesday	8	4	3	1	7	15
8	Oxford United	7	4	2	1	7	14
9	Stevenage	8	3	3	2	4	12
10	Burton Albion	10	3	3	4	-2	12
11	AFC Wimbledon	9	3	3	3	-3	12
12	Leyton Orient	9	3	2	4	2	11
13	Luton	8	3	2	3	1	11
14	Mansfield Town	8	3	2	3	-2	11
15	Wycombe	9	2	4	3	-6	10
16	Doncaster	8	2	3	3	0	9
17	Leicester	8	2	3	3	-4	9
18	Blackpool	8	2	2	4	-1	8
19	Barnsley	8	2	2	4	-7	8
20	Peterborough	9	2	2	5	-7	8
21	Bromley	8	2	2	4	-11	8
22	Notts County	8	1	4	3	-3	7
23	Milton Keynes Dons	8	0	6	2	-6	6
24	Wigan	8	1	1	6	-8	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.