Brisbane Road · Referee C. Hicks · Analysis updated 15:04 UTC
Leyton Orient vs Stevenage Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.12 expected goals for Leyton Orient and 1.03 for Stevenage, a combined total of 2.15. That distribution gives Leyton Orient the largest share of the 1X2 market at 38%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 36% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 38% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
67.0% probability
Expected goals
1.12 – 1.03
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Leyton Orient home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stevenage away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
71%
Double chance X2
63%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–113.4%
- 1–013.0%
- 0–112.0%
- 0–011.6%
- 2–17.5%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.6%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.85 (model 56.7% vs market 50.0%, edge +6.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.85 | 50.0% | 56.7% | 1.76 | +6.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.53 | 61.7% | 62.5% | 1.60 | +0.8 |
| Match result | Away | 2.80 | 32.6% | 33.0% | 3.03 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.10 | 29.4% | 29.5% | 3.39 | +0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.40 | 67.4% | 67.0% | 1.49 | -0.4 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.33 | 70.9% | 70.5% | 1.42 | -0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 2.40 | 38.0% | 37.5% | 2.67 | -0.5 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.0% | 43.3% | 2.31 | -6.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Leyton Orient
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Plymouth · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Stevenage · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Arsenal U21 · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · H vs Wycombe · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Bradford · 1-3 (L)
Stevenage
- 2026-09-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Walsall · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Leyton Orient · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-10T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Luton · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Barnsley · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-01T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Peterborough · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 1-0 Stevenage (League One)
- 2026-03-10T19:45:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 2-1 Stevenage (League One)
- 2025-09-27T11:30:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 2-3 Stevenage (League One)
- 2025-03-27T20:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 1-0 Stevenage (League One)
- 2025-01-21T19:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 0-1 Stevenage (EFL Trophy)
- 2024-11-23T12:30:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 0-0 Stevenage (League One)
- 2024-03-16T15:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 1-0 Stevenage (League One)
- 2023-09-02T14:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 0-3 Stevenage (League One)
- 2023-01-21T15:00:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 0-3 Stevenage (League Two)
- 2022-12-27T12:30:00.000Z · Leyton Orient 0-0 Stevenage (League Two)
League One table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Plymouth | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 19 |
| 2 | Bradford | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 17 |
| 3 | Stockport County | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 4 | Huddersfield | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 7 | 16 |
| 5 | Cambridge United | 9 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 |
| 6 | Reading | 9 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 11 | 15 |
| 7 | Oxford United | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 8 | Sheffield Wednesday | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 15 |
| 9 | Stevenage | 8 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 12 |
| 10 | Burton Albion | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | -2 | 12 |
| 11 | Mansfield Town | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 12 |
| 12 | AFC Wimbledon | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 12 |
| 13 | Leyton Orient | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 11 |
| 14 | Luton | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 11 |
| 15 | Wycombe | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 16 | Doncaster | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 17 | Leicester | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -4 | 9 |
| 18 | Blackpool | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 8 |
| 19 | Barnsley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 8 |
| 20 | Peterborough | 9 | 2 | 2 | 5 | -7 | 8 |
| 21 | Bromley | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -11 | 8 |
| 22 | Notts County | 8 | 1 | 4 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 23 | Milton Keynes Dons | 8 | 0 | 6 | 2 | -6 | 6 |
| 24 | Wigan | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 36%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.