Estadio Tigo La Huerta · Referee M. D. de Vivar · Analysis updated 15:12 UTC
Libertad Asuncion vs Sportivo Ameliano Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.73 expected goals for Libertad Asuncion and 1.23 for Sportivo Ameliano, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Libertad Asuncion the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Libertad Asuncion win
49.1% probability
Expected goals
1.73 – 1.23
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Libertad Asuncion home form
7 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Sportivo Ameliano away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Libertad Asuncion to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 24% / 27% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.73 goals for Libertad Asuncion and 1.23 for Sportivo Ameliano, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
73%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.1%
- 2–19.5%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–07.8%
- 1–26.8%
Recent form
Libertad Asuncion
- 2026-09-28T22:00:00.000Z · H vs Olimpia · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-23T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Fernando De La Mora · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Ameliano · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T21:30:00.000Z · A vs 2 de Mayo · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Rubio NU · 4-2 (W)
Sportivo Ameliano
- 2026-09-25T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Nacional Asuncion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Libertad Asuncion · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-11T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Sp. San Lorenzo · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T21:30:00.000Z · A vs Sportivo Luqueno · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-02T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Sportivo Trinidense · 0-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Division Profesional - Clausura table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Olimpia | 15 | 9 | 3 | 3 | 15 | 30 |
| 2 | Nacional Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 15 | 29 |
| 3 | 2 de Mayo | 15 | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | 28 |
| 4 | Sportivo Trinidense | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 27 |
| 5 | Libertad Asuncion | 15 | 8 | 3 | 4 | 6 | 27 |
| 6 | Club Guarani | 15 | 5 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 22 |
| 7 | Cerro Porteno | 15 | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 21 |
| 8 | Sportivo Ameliano | 15 | 4 | 7 | 4 | -1 | 19 |
| 9 | Sportivo Luqueno | 15 | 5 | 1 | 9 | -12 | 16 |
| 10 | Rubio NU | 15 | 3 | 4 | 8 | -10 | 13 |
| 11 | Deportivo Recoleta | 15 | 3 | 2 | 10 | -12 | 11 |
| 12 | Club Sp. San Lorenzo | 15 | 0 | 4 | 11 | -19 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Libertad Asuncion win, at 49.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.