Campo Sportivo di Borgo Maggiore · Analysis updated 13:55 UTC
Libertas vs Cosmos Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Libertas and 1.45 for Cosmos, a combined total of 2.61. That distribution gives Cosmos the largest share of the 1X2 market at 44%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 53% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 44% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
69.7% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.45
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Cosmos away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Cosmos to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 44%, against 30% / 26% / 44% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Libertas and 1.45 for Cosmos, a combined 2.61 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 48% and both teams to score at 53%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
56%
Double chance 12
74%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.4%
- 0–110.7%
- 1–29.0%
- 1–08.5%
- 0–27.7%
Recent form
Libertas
Cosmos
- 2026-08-29T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Libertas · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-06T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Tre Penne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-05-03T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Tre Penne · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-04-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Pennarossa · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Faetano · 2-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Campionato table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Folgore | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 15 |
| 2 | Tre Penne | 5 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 15 |
| 3 | Virtus | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 4 | Tre Fiori | 5 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 10 | 12 |
| 5 | Cosmos | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 10 |
| 6 | La Fiorita | 5 | 2 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 9 |
| 7 | Libertas | 5 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 |
| 8 | Fiorentino | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 7 |
| 9 | Domagnano | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 10 | Juvenes / Dogana | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -1 | 3 |
| 11 | Cailungo | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 3 |
| 12 | San Giovanni | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -7 | 3 |
| 13 | Murata | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -9 | 3 |
| 14 | Pennarossa | 5 | 1 | 0 | 4 | -13 | 3 |
| 15 | San Marino Academy | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -9 | 2 |
| 16 | Faetano | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -14 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 69.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 53% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.
A 70% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.