Libya U20 vs Algeria U20 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Libya U20 and 1.47 for Algeria U20, a combined total of 3.12. That distribution gives Libya U20 the largest share of the 1X2 market at 42%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 60% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 42% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

65.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.65 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Libya U20 home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Algeria U20 away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 8 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Libya U20 to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 42%, against 42% / 24% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Libya U20 and 1.47 for Algeria U20, a combined 3.12 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Libya U20 win42%

Draw24%

Algeria U20 win34%

Double chance 1X

66%

Double chance 12

76%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals82%

Over 2.5 goals60%

Over 3.5 goals38%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–18.9%
1–27.9%
1–07.3%
0–16.5%

Recent form

Libya U20

2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Algeria U20 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-24T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Egypt U20 · 0-2 (L)
2022-07-27T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Algeria U20 · 1-3 (L)
2022-07-24T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Lebanon U20 · 2-0 (W)

Algeria U20

2026-09-30T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Morocco U20 · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Libya U20 · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Tunisia U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-08T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U20 · 1-1 (D)
2026-06-05T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Tunisia U20 · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Africa Cup of Nations U20 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Egypt U20	4	3	0	1	3	9
2	Morocco U20	4	2	1	1	3	7
3	Burkina Faso U20	2	2	0	0	5	6
4	Cameroon U20	2	2	0	0	5	6
5	Guinea U20	2	2	0	0	2	6
6	Gambia U20	2	1	1	0	1	4
7	Algeria U20	4	1	1	2	-2	4
8	Libya U20	4	1	1	2	-3	4
9	Senegal U20	1	1	0	0	1	3
10	Tunisia U20	4	0	3	1	-1	3
11	Congo U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
12	Côte d'Ivoire U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
13	Congo DR U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
14	Gabon U20	2	0	2	0	0	2
15	Liberia U20	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Central African Rep. U20	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Niger U20	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Nigeria U20	2	0	1	1	-3	1
19	Chad U20	2	0	1	1	-3	1
20	Mauritania U20	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Mali U20	2	0	0	2	-2	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 60%.

A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.