· Analysis updated 14:01 UTC
Lichfield City vs Matlock Town Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.67 expected goals for Lichfield City and 2.14 for Matlock Town, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Matlock Town the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 72% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Matlock Town win
48.8% probability
Expected goals
1.67 – 2.14
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lichfield City home form
3 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Matlock Town to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 31% / 21% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.67 goals for Lichfield City and 2.14 for Matlock Town, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 72%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.5%
- 1–17.9%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.6%
- 1–36.0%
Recent form
Lichfield City
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Matlock Town · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-07-04T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tamworth · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Shepshed Dynamo · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs AFC Rushden & Diamonds · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-04-11T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bedworth United · 1-3 (L)
Matlock Town
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Kettering Town · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Nuneaton Town · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lichfield City · 5-0 (W)
- 2026-07-25T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carlton Town · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Rotherham · 1-1 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · Lichfield City 0-5 Matlock Town (FA Trophy)
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Matlock Town win, at 48.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 72% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.