Lichtenberg vs BAK '07 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.41 expected goals for Lichtenberg and 1.24 for BAK '07, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives Lichtenberg the largest share of the 1X2 market at 41%, with the draw at 26%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 41% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.0% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.41 – 1.24

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lichtenberg home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
BAK '07 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lichtenberg to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 41%, against 41% / 26% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.41 goals for Lichtenberg and 1.24 for BAK '07, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lichtenberg win41%

Draw26%

BAK '07 win33%

Double chance 1X

67%

Double chance 12

74%

Double chance X2

59%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals74%

Over 2.5 goals49%

Over 3.5 goals27%

Both teams to score54%

Correct score

1–112.4%
1–010.0%
0–18.8%
2–18.7%
1–27.6%

Recent form

Lichtenberg

2026-10-24T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Mecklenburg Schwerin · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-18T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Hansa Rostock II · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-10T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Anker Wismar · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-25T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Tennis Borussia · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Makkabi · 2-0 (W)

BAK '07

2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Neustrelitz · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Eintracht Mahlsdorf · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Mecklenburg Schwerin · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sparta Lichtenberg · 3-1 (W)
2026-08-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Reinickendorfer Fuchse · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Oberliga - Nordost-Nord table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Eintracht Mahlsdorf	9	6	1	2	6	19
2	Reinickendorfer Fuchse	9	5	2	2	4	17
3	Hertha Zehlendorf	9	5	0	4	8	15
4	BAK '07	8	4	3	1	3	15
5	Siedenbollentin	9	4	2	3	5	14
6	Lichtenberg	9	4	2	3	2	14
7	Hansa Rostock II	9	3	4	2	8	13
8	Optik Rathenow	9	4	1	4	3	13
9	Anker Wismar	9	4	1	4	-5	13
10	Tennis Borussia	9	3	3	3	0	12
11	Mecklenburg Schwerin	9	2	4	3	-3	10
12	Sparta Lichtenberg	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	FC Lok Stendal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
14	Union Klosterfelde	8	2	2	4	-6	8
15	Makkabi	9	2	2	5	-12	8
16	Neustrelitz	8	2	0	6	-6	6

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.