Lida vs BATE II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.70 expected goals for Lida and 1.11 for BATE II, a combined total of 3.81. That distribution gives Lida the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 16%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Lida win

70.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.70 – 1.11

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lida home form
12 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lida to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 16% / 13% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.70 goals for Lida and 1.11 for BATE II, a combined 3.81 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 73% and both teams to score at 62%, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Lida win71%

Draw16%

BATE II win13%

Double chance 1X

87%

Double chance 12

84%

Double chance X2

29%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals89%

Over 2.5 goals73%

Over 3.5 goals53%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.0%
2–08.1%
3–18.1%
3–07.3%
1–16.6%

Recent form

Lida

2026-09-25T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Smorgon · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-19T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Bumprom · 0-4 (L)
2026-09-13T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Minsk II · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Osipovichy · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Shakhter Soligorsk · 2-1 (W)

BATE II

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

1. Division table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	FC Slutsk	30	20	6	4	32	66
2	Lida	30	20	3	7	11	63
3	Niva	30	19	5	6	41	62
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	30	18	5	7	29	59
5	Slonim	30	16	5	9	18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	13	8	9	14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	14	3	12	-2	45
8	Bumprom	30	12	5	13	6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	9	12	9	-1	39
10	Smorgon	30	11	6	13	-4	39
11	Volna	30	11	5	14	-11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	10	5	12	1	35
13	Minsk II	30	10	3	17	-16	33
14	Uni Minsk	29	7	9	13	-8	30
15	Orsha	30	8	6	16	-21	30
16	Gomel II	30	6	6	18	-20	24
17	Osipovichy	30	6	5	19	-40	23
18	BATE II	29	5	7	17	-29	22

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lida win, at 70.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.

A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.