· Analysis updated 13:54 UTC
Liechtenstein W vs Hong Kong W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.75 expected goals for Liechtenstein W and 2.24 for Hong Kong W, a combined total of 3.99. That distribution gives Hong Kong W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 76% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Hong Kong W win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
1.75 – 2.24
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Liechtenstein W home form
1 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Hong Kong W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 31% / 20% / 49% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.75 goals for Liechtenstein W and 2.24 for Hong Kong W, a combined 3.99 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 76% and both teams to score at 74%, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 8%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
51%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
70%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–28.1%
- 1–17.2%
- 2–27.1%
- 2–16.3%
- 1–36.1%
Recent form
Liechtenstein W
- 2026-06-09T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lithuania W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-06-05T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Estonia W · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-04-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bosnia-Herzegovina W · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-04-14T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Estonia W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-03-07T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Bosnia-Herzegovina W · 1-13 (L)
Hong Kong W
- 2026-09-21T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Uzbekistan W · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-17T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Philippines W · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-14T10:00:00.000Z · A vs China W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-06-06T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiji W · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-06-03T08:00:00.000Z · H vs Fiji W · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Hong Kong W win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 76%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.