Liège vs Dender Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 0.92 expected goals for Liège and 1.98 for Dender, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Dender the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dender win

61.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

0.92 – 1.98

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Liège home form
1 points from their last 3 home matches in our dataset.
Dender away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dender to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 62%, against 17% / 21% / 62% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.92 goals for Liège and 1.98 for Dender, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Liège win17%

Draw21%

Dender win62%

Double chance 1X

38%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

83%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals55%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

0–110.9%
0–210.8%
1–110.0%
1–29.9%
0–37.1%

Recent form

Liège

2026-09-19T18:00:00.000Z · A vs AS Eupen · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-13T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Club Brugge II · 4-4 (D)
2026-09-06T14:00:00.000Z · A vs K. Lierse S.K. · 0-0 (D)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dender · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-23T14:00:00.000Z · A vs KRC Genk II · 3-2 (W)

Dender

2026-09-26T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Hoogstraten · 6-0 (W)
2026-09-20T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Patro Eisden · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-11T18:00:00.000Z · A vs KAA Gent II · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-04T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Seraing United · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-29T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Liège · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Challenger Pro League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Beerschot VA	7	6	0	1	12	18
2	Dender	7	6	0	1	9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	5	0	1	8	15
4	Francs Borains	6	4	0	2	2	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	4	0	3	-2	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	3	1	2	5	10
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	3	1	2	2	10
8	K. Lierse S.K.	6	2	2	2	-1	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	KAA Gent II	6	2	2	2	-2	8
11	KRC Genk II	7	2	1	4	-3	7
12	Patro Eisden	7	2	0	5	-4	6
13	Liège	7	1	2	4	-7	5
14	Seraing United	7	0	2	5	-7	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	0	1	6	-10	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dender win, at 61.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.