Life Stadium · Analysis updated 07:49 UTC
Life Sihanoukville vs National Defense Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.15 expected goals for Life Sihanoukville and 1.80 for National Defense, a combined total of 3.95. That distribution gives Life Sihanoukville the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 75% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 8%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Life Sihanoukville win
46.5% probability
Expected goals
2.15 – 1.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
National Defense away threat
Scored in 1 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 8 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Life Sihanoukville to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 21% / 33% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.15 goals for Life Sihanoukville and 1.80 for National Defense, a combined 3.95 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
67%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
54%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–18.0%
- 1–17.5%
- 2–27.2%
- 1–26.7%
- 3–15.7%
Recent form
Life Sihanoukville
National Defense
- 2026-09-19T11:00:00.000Z · H vs NagaWorld · 4-5 (L)
- 2026-09-12T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Svay Rieng · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-06T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Visakha · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-05-16T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Dangkor Senchey · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-05-09T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Visakha · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-02T09:00:00.000Z · Life Sihanoukville 4-0 National Defense (C-League)
- 2026-03-14T11:00:00.000Z · Life Sihanoukville 3-1 National Defense (C-League)
- 2026-01-18T11:00:00.000Z · Life Sihanoukville 0-3 National Defense (C-League)
- 2025-09-28T11:00:00.000Z · Life Sihanoukville 0-1 National Defense (C-League)
- 2025-04-19T11:00:00.000Z · Life Sihanoukville 0-1 National Defense (C-League)
- 2025-02-22T11:00:00.000Z · Life Sihanoukville 2-0 National Defense (C-League)
- 2024-12-28T11:00:00.000Z · Life Sihanoukville 3-1 National Defense (C-League)
- 2024-09-14T11:00:00.000Z · Life Sihanoukville 2-3 National Defense (C-League)
C-League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Visakha | 5 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 9 | 13 |
| 2 | Svay Rieng | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 10 | 11 |
| 3 | NagaWorld | 4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 10 |
| 4 | Phnom Penh Crown | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 6 |
| 5 | Dangkor Senchey | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 5 |
| 6 | Angkor Tiger | 4 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 |
| 7 | Kompong Dewa | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 4 |
| 8 | Kirivong Sok Sen Chey | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 3 |
| 9 | Life Sihanoukville | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 1 |
| 10 | Boeung Ket | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
| 11 | National Defense | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | -17 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Life Sihanoukville win, at 46.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 75%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.