· Analysis updated 14:29 UTC
Ligorna vs Bra Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.45 expected goals for Ligorna and 1.33 for Bra, a combined total of 2.78. That distribution gives Ligorna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 53% for over 2.5 goals and 56% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.45 – 1.33
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ligorna home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Bra away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
75%
Double chance X2
60%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.0%
- 1–09.0%
- 2–18.7%
- 0–18.3%
- 1–27.9%
Recent form
Ligorna
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chisola · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derthona · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Biellese · 1-3 (L)
Bra
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Celle Varazze · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Sanremese · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Borgosesia · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-16T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Biellese · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2025-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Ligorna 0-2 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2024-11-24T14:00:00.000Z · Ligorna 0-1 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2024-01-17T13:30:00.000Z · Ligorna 0-0 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2023-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · Ligorna 2-1 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2023-04-16T13:00:00.000Z · Ligorna 1-4 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2022-12-07T13:30:00.000Z · Ligorna 0-2 Bra (Coppa Italia Serie D)
- 2022-12-03T13:30:00.000Z · Ligorna 1-1 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2022-03-30T13:00:00.000Z · Ligorna 2-3 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2021-11-14T13:30:00.000Z · Ligorna 3-3 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
- 2020-02-02T13:30:00.000Z · Ligorna 2-5 Bra (Serie D - Girone A)
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 15 |
| 2 | Biellese | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 14 |
| 3 | Derthona | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| 4 | Ligorna | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 5 | Asti | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 6 | Gozzano | 6 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 10 |
| 7 | Saluzzo | 6 | 2 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 9 |
| 8 | Millesimo | 6 | 3 | 0 | 3 | 2 | 9 |
| 9 | Chisola | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 10 | Imperia | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 8 |
| 11 | Lascaris | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -3 | 8 |
| 12 | Sanremese | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 8 |
| 13 | Fezzanese | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 7 |
| 14 | Sestri Levante | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 7 |
| 15 | Borgosesia | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Bra | 6 | 1 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -3 | 4 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 6 | 0 | 0 | 6 | -12 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 56% and over 2.5 goals at 53%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.