Ligorna vs Derthona Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.00 expected goals for Ligorna and 1.75 for Derthona, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Derthona the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Derthona win

55.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.00 – 1.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Ligorna home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Derthona away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Derthona to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 22% / 24% / 55% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.00 goals for Ligorna and 1.75 for Derthona, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Ligorna win22%

Draw24%

Derthona win55%

Double chance 1X

45%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

79%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score52%

Correct score

0–111.2%
1–111.2%
0–29.8%
1–29.8%
0–06.4%

Recent form

Ligorna

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chisola · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derthona · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Biellese · 1-3 (L)

Derthona

2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Alessandria · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Saluzzo · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Millesimo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ligorna · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Imperia · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Serie D - Girone A table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Alessandria	6	5	0	1	4	15
2	Biellese	6	4	2	0	7	14
3	Derthona	6	3	2	1	1	11
4	Ligorna	6	3	1	2	1	10
5	Asti	6	3	1	2	1	10
6	Gozzano	6	3	1	2	1	10
7	Saluzzo	6	2	3	1	3	9
8	Millesimo	6	3	0	3	2	9
9	Chisola	6	2	2	2	2	8
10	Imperia	6	2	2	2	1	8
11	Lascaris	6	2	2	2	-3	8
12	Sanremese	6	2	2	2	2	8
13	Fezzanese	6	2	1	3	0	7
14	Sestri Levante	6	2	1	3	-2	7
15	Borgosesia	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Bra	6	1	2	3	-3	5
17	Valenzana	6	1	1	4	-3	4
18	Celle Varazze	6	0	0	6	-12	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Derthona win, at 55.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.