· Analysis updated 00:37 UTC
Ligorna vs Sestri Levante Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.72 expected goals for Ligorna and 0.91 for Sestri Levante, a combined total of 2.63. That distribution gives Ligorna the largest share of the 1X2 market at 57%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 57% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Ligorna win
56.6% probability
Expected goals
1.72 – 0.91
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Ligorna home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sestri Levante away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Ligorna to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 57%, against 57% / 24% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.72 goals for Ligorna and 0.91 for Sestri Levante, a combined 2.63 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
43%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.4%
- 1–111.3%
- 2–010.7%
- 2–19.7%
- 0–07.2%
Recent form
Ligorna
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Gozzano · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-10-04T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Saluzzo · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-27T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Chisola · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-16T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Derthona · 2-3 (L)
Sestri Levante
- 2026-08-19T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sampdoria U20 · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-08-15T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Genoa U20 · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sanremese · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-04-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Celle Varazze · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Asti · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Serie D - Girone A table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandria | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 | 9 | 24 |
| 2 | Chisola | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 17 |
| 3 | Biellese | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | 7 | 17 |
| 4 | Millesimo | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 9 | 16 |
| 5 | Ligorna | 9 | 5 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 16 |
| 6 | Imperia | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 14 |
| 7 | Sanremese | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 8 | Derthona | 9 | 3 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 13 |
| 9 | Borgosesia | 9 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 12 |
| 10 | Saluzzo | 9 | 2 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 11 | Asti | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 11 |
| 12 | Lascaris | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 11 |
| 13 | Gozzano | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | -4 | 10 |
| 14 | Bra | 9 | 2 | 4 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 15 | Fezzanese | 9 | 3 | 1 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 16 | Sestri Levante | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | -3 | 9 |
| 17 | Valenzana | 9 | 1 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Celle Varazze | 8 | 0 | 1 | 7 | -14 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Ligorna win, at 56.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 57% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.