Lijabatho vs Lioli Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.44 expected goals for Lijabatho and 0.75 for Lioli, a combined total of 2.19. That distribution gives Lijabatho the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 37% for over 2.5 goals and 40% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 16%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lijabatho win

53.5% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.44 – 0.75

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lijabatho home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 1 of the last 9 meetings.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lijabatho to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 27% / 20% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.44 goals for Lijabatho and 0.75 for Lioli, a combined 2.19 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.

Match result (1X2)

Lijabatho win54%

Draw27%

Lioli win20%

Double chance 1X

81%

Double chance 12

73%

Double chance X2

47%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals64%

Over 2.5 goals37%

Over 3.5 goals18%

Both teams to score40%

Correct score

1–016.1%
1–112.1%
2–011.6%
0–011.2%
2–18.7%

Recent form

Lijabatho

2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Members · 2-0 (W)
2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manonyane · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T13:45:00.000Z · H vs Lioli · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs CFFA · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs CFFA · 0-2 (L)

Lioli

Head-to-head

2026-10-03T13:45:00.000Z · Lijabatho 0-0 Lioli (Premier League)
2026-05-09T13:00:00.000Z · Lijabatho 4-0 Lioli (Premier League)
2025-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · Lijabatho 0-2 Lioli (Premier League)
2025-03-01T13:00:00.000Z · Lijabatho 0-0 Lioli (Premier League)
2024-12-15T12:00:00.000Z · Lijabatho 0-3 Lioli (Premier League)
2024-04-06T13:00:00.000Z · Lijabatho 0-0 Lioli (Premier League)
2024-01-14T14:00:00.000Z · Lijabatho 2-1 Lioli (Premier League)
2023-03-04T13:00:00.000Z · Lijabatho 4-0 Lioli (Premier League)
2022-12-17T13:00:00.000Z · Lijabatho 0-0 Lioli (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Matlama	8	6	1	1	9	19
2	Lijabatho	7	5	2	0	14	17
3	Majantja	8	5	2	1	8	17
4	Bantu	7	5	1	1	11	16
5	Lioli	8	3	5	0	8	14
6	Linare	7	4	1	2	3	13
7	LDF	8	3	4	1	1	13
8	LCS	8	3	2	3	1	11
9	Manonyane	8	2	4	2	3	10
10	Lifofane	8	2	2	4	-5	8
11	Members	7	2	2	3	-5	8
12	Limkokwing University	7	1	3	3	-3	6
13	SC Villa	7	1	1	5	-6	4
14	Machokha	8	1	1	6	-10	4
15	Mzamane	8	1	1	6	-20	4
16	LMPS	8	0	2	6	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lijabatho win, at 53.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 40% and over 2.5 goals at 37%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.