· Analysis updated 01:17 UTC
Lijabatho vs Machokha Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.07 expected goals for Lijabatho and 0.54 for Machokha, a combined total of 3.60. That distribution gives Lijabatho the largest share of the 1X2 market at 87%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 39% for both teams to score, with 3–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 87% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lijabatho win
86.7% probability
Expected goals
3.07 – 0.54
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lijabatho home form
11 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Machokha away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lijabatho to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 87%, against 87% / 10% / 4% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.07 goals for Lijabatho and 0.54 for Machokha, a combined 3.60 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
91%
Double chance X2
13%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–013.1%
- 2–012.8%
- 4–010.0%
- 1–08.4%
- 3–17.0%
Recent form
Lijabatho
- 2026-10-25T11:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Villa · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-18T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bantu · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-14T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Matlama · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Members · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-10-07T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manonyane · 1-0 (W)
Machokha
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Linare · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-29T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Limkokwing University · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-08-23T11:00:00.000Z · H vs LCS · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-05-16T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Liphakoe · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-05-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Manonyane · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lijabatho win, at 86.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 39% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 87% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.