Stade Pierre-Mauroy · Referee Bastein Dechepy · Analysis updated 19:48 UTC
Lille vs Le Havre Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.94 expected goals for Lille and 0.76 for Le Havre, a combined total of 2.70. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lille win
65.2% probability
Expected goals
1.94 – 0.76
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lille home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Le Havre away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 7 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
35%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–013.0%
- 2–012.6%
- 1–19.9%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.2%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.5%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 1.91 (model 54.4% vs market 49.2%, edge +5.2 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 1.91 | 49.2% | 54.4% | 1.84 | +5.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.11 | 85.6% | 86.1% | 1.16 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.40 | 20.7% | 20.9% | 4.78 | +0.2 |
| Match result | Home | 1.40 | 65.2% | 65.2% | 1.53 | -0.0 |
| Match result | Away | 6.50 | 14.0% | 13.9% | 7.19 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.20 | 79.2% | 79.1% | 1.26 | -0.1 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.70 | 35.2% | 34.8% | 2.87 | -0.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.85 | 50.8% | 45.6% | 2.19 | -5.2 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lille
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)
Le Havre
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lille · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-02T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Boulogne · 6-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Toulouse · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Angers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Stade Brestois 29 · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-05-03T13:00:00.000Z · Lille 1-1 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2025-11-30T16:15:00.000Z · Lille 1-0 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2025-02-08T18:00:00.000Z · Lille 1-2 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2024-09-28T17:00:00.000Z · Lille 3-0 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2024-02-17T16:00:00.000Z · Lille 3-0 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2023-10-01T13:00:00.000Z · Lille 2-0 Le Havre (Ligue 1)
- 2023-07-26T15:00:00.000Z · Lille 3-2 Le Havre (Friendlies Clubs)
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lille win, at 65.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.