Stade Pierre-Mauroy · Analysis updated 14:18 UTC
Lille vs Lorient Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lille and 0.88 for Lorient, a combined total of 2.25. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 28%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 39% for over 2.5 goals and 44% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 15%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lille win
48.5% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 0.88
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lille home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lorient away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lille to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 49%, against 49% / 28% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Lille and 0.88 for Lorient, a combined 2.25 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
76%
Double chance 12
72%
Double chance X2
52%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–014.5%
- 1–112.7%
- 0–010.5%
- 2–010.0%
- 0–19.2%
Recent form
Lille
- 2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)
Lorient
- 2026-10-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris FC · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Mans · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-05T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Lens · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Ligue 1 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Monaco | 6 | 4 | 2 | 0 | 5 | 14 |
| 2 | Lille | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 13 |
| 3 | Rennes | 6 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 13 |
| 4 | Lyon | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 11 |
| 5 | Paris FC | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 11 |
| 6 | Paris Saint Germain | 6 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 11 |
| 7 | Stade Brestois 29 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 8 |
| 8 | Lorient | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 8 |
| 9 | Nice | 6 | 2 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 | Lens | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 7 |
| 11 | Strasbourg | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -1 | 7 |
| 12 | Angers | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | -3 | 7 |
| 13 | Marseille | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | 1 | 6 |
| 14 | Le Mans | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 15 | Toulouse | 6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | -2 | 6 |
| 16 | Auxerre | 6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -8 | 6 |
| 17 | Estac Troyes | 6 | 1 | 1 | 4 | -9 | 4 |
| 18 | Le Havre | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -4 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lille win, at 48.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 44% and over 2.5 goals at 39%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.