Lille vs Stade Brestois 29 Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.55 expected goals for Lille and 1.30 for Stade Brestois 29, a combined total of 2.85. That distribution gives Lille the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 54% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Home/Draw

68.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.55 – 1.30

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lille home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Stade Brestois 29 away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Lille win43%

Draw25%

Stade Brestois 29 win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals78%

Over 2.5 goals54%

Over 3.5 goals32%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–111.7%
2–19.0%
1–09.0%
1–27.6%
0–17.5%

Recent form

Lille

2026-10-10T15:15:00.000Z · H vs Le Havre · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-02T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Zulte Waregem · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Nice · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Estac Troyes · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-08T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Real Betis · 2-3 (L)

Stade Brestois 29

2026-10-03T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Monza · 2-2 (D)
2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Auxerre · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Paris Saint Germain · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-05T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Le Havre · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Toulouse · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-02-14T18:00:00.000Z · Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2025-08-17T13:00:00.000Z · Lille 3-3 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2025-05-10T19:00:00.000Z · Lille 0-2 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2024-12-06T18:00:00.000Z · Lille 3-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2024-03-17T12:00:00.000Z · Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2023-10-22T13:00:00.000Z · Lille 1-0 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2023-02-24T20:00:00.000Z · Lille 2-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2023-01-11T18:00:00.000Z · Lille 0-0 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2022-01-22T16:00:00.000Z · Lille 0-2 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)
2021-10-23T19:00:00.000Z · Lille 1-1 Stade Brestois 29 (Ligue 1)

Ligue 1 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Monaco	6	4	2	0	5	14
2	Lille	6	4	1	1	5	13
3	Rennes	6	4	1	1	2	13
4	Lyon	6	3	2	1	7	11
5	Paris FC	6	3	2	1	4	11
6	Paris Saint Germain	6	3	2	1	3	11
7	Stade Brestois 29	6	2	2	2	3	8
8	Lorient	6	2	2	2	0	8
9	Nice	6	2	2	2	-2	8
10	Lens	6	2	1	3	1	7
11	Strasbourg	6	2	1	3	-1	7
12	Angers	6	2	1	3	-3	7
13	Marseille	6	2	0	4	1	6
14	Le Mans	6	1	3	2	-2	6
15	Toulouse	6	1	3	2	-2	6
16	Auxerre	6	2	0	4	-8	6
17	Estac Troyes	6	1	1	4	-9	4
18	Le Havre	6	0	2	4	-4	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 68.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 54%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.