· Analysis updated 16:33 UTC
Lillehammer vs Brumunddal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Lillehammer and 0.80 for Brumunddal, a combined total of 5.30. That distribution gives Lillehammer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 93%, with the draw at 5%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 86% for over 2.5 goals and 52% for both teams to score, with 4–0 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 93% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Lillehammer win
92.7% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 0.80
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lillehammer home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Brumunddal away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lillehammer to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 93%, against 93% / 5% / 2% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Lillehammer and 0.80 for Brumunddal, a combined 5.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
98%
Double chance 12
95%
Double chance X2
7%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–08.5%
- 5–07.7%
- 3–07.6%
- 4–16.8%
- 5–16.1%
Recent form
Lillehammer
- 2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Råde · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjørkelangen · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 II · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Raelingen · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elverum · 3-4 (L)
Brumunddal
- 2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Drøbak / Frogn · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-10-17T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Råde · 0-14 (L)
- 2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Fram · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ørn Horten · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Oppsal · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
3. Division - Girone 6 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lillehammer | 25 | 19 | 2 | 4 | 56 | 59 |
| 2 | Elverum | 25 | 17 | 2 | 6 | 31 | 53 |
| 3 | Råde | 25 | 14 | 4 | 7 | 45 | 46 |
| 4 | Gjøvik-Lyn | 25 | 14 | 2 | 9 | 20 | 44 |
| 5 | Drøbak / Frogn | 25 | 12 | 5 | 8 | 20 | 41 |
| 6 | Ørn Horten | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 38 |
| 7 | Raelingen | 25 | 11 | 5 | 9 | -6 | 38 |
| 8 | Lyn II | 24 | 10 | 4 | 10 | 1 | 34 |
| 9 | Oppsal | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 2 | 33 |
| 10 | Sandefjord II | 24 | 10 | 3 | 11 | 1 | 33 |
| 11 | Sarpsborg 08 II | 24 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 4 | 32 |
| 12 | Fram | 25 | 8 | 5 | 12 | -9 | 29 |
| 13 | Brumunddal | 25 | 3 | 3 | 19 | -83 | 12 |
| 14 | Bjørkelangen | 25 | 1 | 0 | 24 | -89 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lillehammer win, at 92.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 52% and over 2.5 goals at 86%.
A 93% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.