Lillehammer vs Sandefjord II Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 3.91 expected goals for Lillehammer and 1.47 for Sandefjord II, a combined total of 5.38. That distribution gives Lillehammer the largest share of the 1X2 market at 80%, with the draw at 11%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 89% for over 2.5 goals and 74% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 80% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lillehammer win

79.9% probability

High confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

3.91 – 1.47

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lillehammer home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sandefjord II away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lillehammer to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 80%, against 80% / 11% / 10% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.91 goals for Lillehammer and 1.47 for Sandefjord II, a combined 5.38 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lillehammer win80%

Draw11%

Sandefjord II win10%

Double chance 1X

91%

Double chance 12

89%

Double chance X2

20%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals95%

Over 2.5 goals89%

Over 3.5 goals77%

Both teams to score74%

Correct score

3–16.8%
4–16.6%
2–15.2%
5–15.2%
3–25.0%

Recent form

Lillehammer

2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Råde · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bjørkelangen · 7-1 (W)
2026-09-12T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 II · 1-3 (L)
2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Raelingen · 3-0 (W)
2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Elverum · 3-4 (L)

Sandefjord II

2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Fram · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Elverum · 4-3 (W)
2026-09-21T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Brumunddal · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Ørn Horten · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Oppsal · 2-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

3. Division - Girone 6 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lillehammer	25	19	2	4	56	59
2	Elverum	25	17	2	6	31	53
3	Råde	25	14	4	7	45	46
4	Gjøvik-Lyn	25	14	2	9	20	44
5	Drøbak / Frogn	25	12	5	8	20	41
6	Ørn Horten	25	11	5	9	7	38
7	Raelingen	25	11	5	9	-6	38
8	Lyn II	24	10	4	10	1	34
9	Oppsal	24	10	3	11	2	33
10	Sandefjord II	24	10	3	11	1	33
11	Sarpsborg 08 II	24	9	5	10	4	32
12	Fram	25	8	5	12	-9	29
13	Brumunddal	25	3	3	19	-83	12
14	Bjørkelangen	25	1	0	24	-89	3

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lillehammer win, at 79.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 74% and over 2.5 goals at 89%.

A 80% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.