Lillestrøm II vs Fløya Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.88 expected goals for Lillestrøm II and 2.78 for Fløya, a combined total of 5.65. That distribution gives Lillestrøm II the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 92% for over 2.5 goals and 88% for both teams to score, with 2–2 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

60.3% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.88 – 2.78

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lillestrøm II home form
6 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Fløya away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lillestrøm II to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 17% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.88 goals for Lillestrøm II and 2.78 for Fløya, a combined 5.65 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lillestrøm II win43%

Draw17%

Fløya win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

83%

Double chance X2

57%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals97%

Over 2.5 goals92%

Over 3.5 goals81%

Both teams to score88%

Correct score

2–25.6%
3–25.4%
2–35.2%
3–35.0%
2–14.0%

Recent form

Lillestrøm II

2026-09-27T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Alta · 3-8 (L)
2026-09-20T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Fauske Sprint · 2-4 (L)
2026-09-14T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Skedsmo · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-06T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Bossekop · 11-0 (W)
2026-08-30T15:15:00.000Z · A vs Finnsnes · 1-0 (W)

Fløya

2026-09-20T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Finnsnes · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Rosenborg · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-13T12:30:00.000Z · A vs Kongsvinger II · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-05T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Skjetten · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Harstad · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-07-25T14:30:00.000Z · Lillestrøm II 2-3 Fløya (3. Division - Girone 5)
2022-08-21T12:00:00.000Z · Lillestrøm II 0-2 Fløya (3. Division - Girone 6)
2022-06-26T14:00:00.000Z · Lillestrøm II 0-3 Fløya (3. Division - Girone 6)

3. Division - Girone 5 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Skedsmo	25	18	2	5	28	56
2	Fløya	24	15	3	6	32	48
3	Harstad	24	14	4	6	41	46
4	Alta	24	13	6	5	21	45
5	Finnsnes	24	12	4	8	7	40
6	Kongsvinger II	25	11	2	12	-17	35
7	Strømsgodset II	25	10	3	12	4	33
8	Skjetten	24	10	3	11	3	33
9	Lillestrøm II	24	10	1	13	18	31
10	Fauske Sprint	24	9	4	11	-19	31
11	Tromsø II	24	7	6	11	1	27
12	Skjervøy	24	8	3	13	-23	27
13	Bossekop	24	5	4	15	-43	19
14	Ulfstind	25	4	3	18	-53	15

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 60.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–2.

It puts both teams scoring at 88% and over 2.5 goals at 92%.

A 60% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.