Åråsen · Referee Joao Pedro Pinheiro, Portugal · Analysis updated 15:33 UTC
Lillestrom vs Egnatia Rrogozhinë Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.98 expected goals for Lillestrom and 0.77 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, a combined total of 2.75. That distribution gives Lillestrom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 46% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lillestrom win
65.8% probability
Expected goals
1.98 – 0.77
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lillestrom home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Egnatia Rrogozhinë away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lillestrom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 21% / 14% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.98 goals for Lillestrom and 0.77 for Egnatia Rrogozhinë, a combined 2.75 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.7%
- 2–012.5%
- 1–19.7%
- 2–19.6%
- 3–08.3%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 6.7%), compared with our model probability.
No selection clears our 3-point edge threshold — the market looks efficiently priced.
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Goals | Under 3.5 | 1.38 | 68.5% | 70.3% | 1.42 | +1.8 |
| Both teams to score | No | 1.75 | 52.4% | 53.7% | 1.86 | +1.3 |
| Match result | Away | 7.40 | 12.7% | 13.7% | 7.30 | +1.0 |
| Goals | Under 2.5 | 2.00 | 47.4% | 48.2% | 2.07 | +0.8 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 2.75 | 33.9% | 34.3% | 2.92 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.43 | 65.5% | 65.8% | 1.52 | +0.3 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.08 | 86.4% | 86.4% | 1.16 | 0.0 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.17 | 79.7% | 79.5% | 1.26 | -0.2 |
| Goals | Over 2.5 | 1.80 | 52.6% | 51.8% | 1.93 | -0.8 |
| Match result | Draw | 4.30 | 21.8% | 20.6% | 4.85 | -1.2 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.93 | 47.6% | 46.3% | 2.16 | -1.3 |
| Goals | Over 3.5 | 3.00 | 31.5% | 29.7% | 3.37 | -1.8 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lillestrom
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bærum · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valerenga · 2-0 (W)
Egnatia Rrogozhinë
- 2026-09-20T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Partizani · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-13T16:30:00.000Z · A vs AF Elbasani · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-04T16:30:00.000Z · H vs Skenderbeu Korce · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-31T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Vora · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-08-27T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 1-2 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
UEFA Europa League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Benfica | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 2 | Bayer Leverkusen | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 9 |
| 3 | Bournemouth | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 9 |
| 4 | Ferencvarosi TC | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 6 | 9 |
| 5 | Olympiakos Piraeus | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 |
| 6 | Union St. Gilloise | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 7 | 7 |
| 7 | Juventus | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 8 | Beşiktaş | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 |
| 9 | Sunderland | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 7 |
| 10 | AZ Alkmaar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 6 |
| 11 | Omonia Nicosia | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| 12 | Lyon | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 6 |
| 13 | Rennes | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 |
| 14 | Real Sociedad | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 |
| 15 | Crystal Palace | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 4 |
| 16 | Sparta Praha | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 |
| 17 | Levski Sofia | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 18 | Dinamo Zagreb | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -1 | 4 |
| 19 | Sturm Graz | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 4 |
| 20 | NEC Nijmegen | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 21 | Red Bull Salzburg | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | -3 | 4 |
| 22 | Anderlecht | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 |
| 23 | 1899 Hoffenheim | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 3 |
| 24 | AC Milan | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 25 | Celta Vigo | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 26 | OFI | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -1 | 3 |
| 27 | Jagiellonia | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -2 | 3 |
| 28 | Torreense | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | -3 | 3 |
| 29 | Celje | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 30 | Hapoel Beer Sheva | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -5 | 1 |
| 31 | Lillestrom | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 32 | Lech Poznan | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -8 | 1 |
| 33 | Plzen | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 34 | Marseille | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -5 | 0 |
| 35 | Celtic | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -6 | 0 |
| 36 | Ararat-Armenia | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -9 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lillestrom win, at 65.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 46% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.