Lillestrom vs Plzen Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.83 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.13 for Plzen, a combined total of 2.95. That distribution gives Lillestrom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 54%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 57% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 54% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

Model pick

Lillestrom win

53.7% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.83 – 1.13

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lillestrom home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Plzen away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lillestrom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 54%, against 54% / 23% / 23% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.83 goals for Lillestrom and 1.13 for Plzen, a combined 2.95 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lillestrom win54%

Draw23%

Plzen win23%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

77%

Double chance X2

46%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals57%

Over 3.5 goals34%

Both teams to score57%

Correct score

1–110.7%
2–19.8%
1–09.6%
2–08.7%
1–26.0%

Recent form

Lillestrom

2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 2-2 (D)
2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bærum · 5-1 (W)
2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valerenga · 2-0 (W)

Plzen

2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Ferencvarosi TC · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Mlada Boleslav · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Slavia Praha · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Union St. Gilloise · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-13T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Sigma Olomouc · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	6	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	Lyon	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	2	0	0	2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	1	1	0	3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	1	1	0	3	4
13	Rennes	2	1	1	0	1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1	1	0	1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	3	3
16	AC Milan	2	1	0	1	2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	1	0	1	1	3
18	OFI	2	1	0	1	1	3
19	Torreense	2	1	0	1	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	1	0	1	-3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	0	1	1	-3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	0	1	1	-5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	0	0	2	-2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	0
31	Plzen	2	0	0	2	-4	0
32	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-4	0
33	Celtic	2	0	0	2	-5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	0	0	2	-5	0
35	Celje	2	0	0	2	-5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lillestrom win, at 53.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 57%.

A 54% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.