· Analysis updated 13:49 UTC
Lillestrom vs Sogndal Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.76 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.56 for Sogndal, a combined total of 3.32. That distribution gives Lillestrom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 23%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 65% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Home/Draw
65.6% probability
Expected goals
1.76 – 1.56
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lillestrom home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Sogndal away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lillestrom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 23% / 34% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.76 goals for Lillestrom and 1.56 for Sogndal, a combined 3.32 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
66%
Double chance 12
77%
Double chance X2
57%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.9%
- 2–18.7%
- 1–27.7%
- 2–26.8%
- 1–06.3%
Recent form
Lillestrom
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bærum · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valerenga · 2-0 (W)
Sogndal
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Stabaek · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-16T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Sotra · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-13T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Strommen · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Haugesund · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Stromsgodset · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 65.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 65%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.