Åråsen · Referee Rohit Saggi, Norway · Analysis updated 20:40 UTC
Lillestrom vs Valerenga Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.65 expected goals for Lillestrom and 1.25 for Valerenga, a combined total of 2.90. That distribution gives Lillestrom the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 55% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lillestrom win
46.8% probability
Expected goals
1.65 – 1.25
Model version
poisson-market-v1
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lillestrom home form
7 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Valerenga away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lillestrom to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 47% / 24% / 29% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.65 goals for Lillestrom and 1.25 for Valerenga, a combined 2.90 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
53%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.3%
- 2–19.4%
- 1–09.1%
- 2–07.5%
- 1–27.1%
Odds vs model — value finder
Bookmaker prices with the margin removed (1X2 overround 9.2%), compared with our model probability.
Best value: Both teams to score — No at 2.75 (model 42.4% vs market 33.7%, edge +8.7 pts).
| Market | Selection | Odds | Market % | Model % | Fair odds | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Both teams to score | NoValue | 2.75 | 33.7% | 42.4% | 2.36 | +8.7 |
| Double chance | Draw/Away | 1.80 | 52.3% | 53.2% | 1.88 | +0.9 |
| Double chance | Home/Away | 1.25 | 75.3% | 75.8% | 1.32 | +0.5 |
| Match result | Away | 3.20 | 28.6% | 29.0% | 3.45 | +0.4 |
| Match result | Home | 1.95 | 47.0% | 46.8% | 2.14 | -0.2 |
| Match result | Draw | 3.75 | 24.4% | 24.2% | 4.13 | -0.2 |
| Double chance | Home/Draw | 1.30 | 72.4% | 71.0% | 1.41 | -1.4 |
| Both teams to score | Yes | 1.40 | 66.3% | 57.6% | 1.74 | -8.7 |
Market % has the bookmaker margin removed so it is comparable with the model. Edge is model % minus market %; it is an estimate, not a guarantee.
Recent form
Lillestrom
- 2026-10-11T17:15:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-01T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Bærum · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Viking · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-17T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Torreense · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Valerenga · 2-0 (W)
Valerenga
- 2026-09-20T12:30:00.000Z · H vs Fredrikstad · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-17T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Skeid · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Lillestrom · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-06T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Sarpsborg 08 FF · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-08-30T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Molde · 3-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Eliteserien table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Viking | 22 | 17 | 2 | 3 | 36 | 53 |
| 2 | Bodo/Glimt | 21 | 16 | 2 | 3 | 34 | 50 |
| 3 | Tromso | 21 | 11 | 5 | 5 | 11 | 38 |
| 4 | Molde | 21 | 11 | 3 | 7 | 12 | 36 |
| 5 | Rosenborg | 21 | 10 | 3 | 8 | 9 | 33 |
| 6 | Lillestrom | 21 | 10 | 2 | 9 | -1 | 32 |
| 7 | Brann | 22 | 9 | 2 | 11 | 5 | 29 |
| 8 | Fredrikstad | 21 | 8 | 4 | 9 | -7 | 28 |
| 9 | Sarpsborg 08 FF | 21 | 6 | 7 | 8 | -5 | 25 |
| 10 | KFUM Oslo | 21 | 7 | 4 | 10 | -10 | 25 |
| 11 | Sandefjord | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -6 | 23 |
| 12 | Valerenga | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -9 | 23 |
| 13 | Ham-Kam | 21 | 6 | 5 | 10 | -15 | 23 |
| 14 | Aalesund | 21 | 4 | 9 | 8 | -13 | 21 |
| 15 | Kristiansund BK | 21 | 5 | 4 | 12 | -19 | 19 |
| 16 | Start | 21 | 4 | 4 | 13 | -22 | 16 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lillestrom win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 55%.
A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.