· Analysis updated 11:01 UTC
Limavady United vs Crusaders FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.95 expected goals for Limavady United and 1.08 for Crusaders FC, a combined total of 3.03. That distribution gives Limavady United the largest share of the 1X2 market at 58%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 58% for over 2.5 goals and 57% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 58% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Limavady United win
57.7% probability
Expected goals
1.95 – 1.08
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Limavady United home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Crusaders FC away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Limavady United to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 58%, against 58% / 22% / 21% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.95 goals for Limavady United and 1.08 for Crusaders FC, a combined 3.03 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
80%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
42%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–110.2%
- 2–19.9%
- 1–09.5%
- 2–09.2%
- 3–16.5%
Recent form
Limavady United
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrick Rangers · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Annagh United · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymena United · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Portadown · 1-3 (L)
Crusaders FC
- 2026-10-24T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Coleraine FC · 0-5 (L)
- 2026-10-21T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Warrenpoint Town · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballymena United · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Larne · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Carrick Rangers · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Coleraine FC | 13 | 11 | 1 | 1 | 19 | 34 |
| 2 | Linfield | 13 | 10 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 32 |
| 3 | Larne | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 11 | 22 |
| 4 | Glentoran | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 20 |
| 5 | Carrick Rangers | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 2 | 18 |
| 6 | Ballymena United | 11 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 15 |
| 7 | Cliftonville FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 0 | 15 |
| 8 | Crusaders FC | 13 | 5 | 0 | 8 | -12 | 15 |
| 9 | Dungannon Swifts | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -5 | 14 |
| 10 | Limavady United | 12 | 4 | 1 | 7 | -6 | 13 |
| 11 | Portadown | 13 | 2 | 2 | 9 | -12 | 8 |
| 12 | Bangor | 13 | 1 | 3 | 9 | -15 | 6 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Limavady United win, at 57.7%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 57% and over 2.5 goals at 58%.
A 58% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.