Pod Grajskim gričem · Analysis updated 13:43 UTC
Limbuš Pekre vs Marjeta na Dravskem polj Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 3.50 expected goals for Limbuš Pekre and 2.00 for Marjeta na Dravskem polj, a combined total of 5.50. That distribution gives Limbuš Pekre the largest share of the 1X2 market at 66%, with the draw at 15%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 90% for over 2.5 goals and 83% for both teams to score, with 3–1 the single most likely scoreline at 6%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 66% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Limbuš Pekre win
66.0% probability
Expected goals
3.50 – 2.00
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Limbuš Pekre home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marjeta na Dravskem polj away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Limbuš Pekre to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 66%, against 66% / 15% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 3.50 goals for Limbuš Pekre and 2.00 for Marjeta na Dravskem polj, a combined 5.50 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
85%
Double chance X2
34%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 3–15.8%
- 3–25.8%
- 4–15.1%
- 4–25.1%
- 2–15.0%
Recent form
Limbuš Pekre
- 2026-10-10T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Rače · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Šmartno · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Korotan Prevalje · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs NK Ormoz · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Hajdina · 1-1 (D)
Marjeta na Dravskem polj
- 2026-10-24T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Odranci · 2-3 (L)
- 2024-09-25T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Maribor · 0-4 (L)
- 2024-09-04T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Peca · 1-1 (D)
- 2024-08-24T15:30:00.000Z · A vs Malečnik · 3-1 (W)
- 2023-10-31T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Roho · 2-3 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bravo | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 7 | 3 |
| 2 | Beltinci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 3 |
| 3 | Fužinar | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 3 |
| 4 | Dob | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 5 | Tolmin | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 3 |
| 6 | Brežice | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 7 | Rače | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 8 | Brinje-Grosuplje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 9 | Celje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 3 |
| 10 | Bistrica | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 11 | Odranci | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 12 | Šencur | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 13 | Radomlje | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 14 | Svoboda | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 15 | Tabor Sežana | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 |
| 16 | Nafta | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 17 | Triglav | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 18 | Bilje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 19 | Krško | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 20 | Marjeta na Dravskem polj | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 21 | Koper | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 22 | Litija | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 23 | Podvinci | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 24 | Aluminij | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 25 | NK Ormoz | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 26 | Korotan Prevalje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 27 | Videm | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 28 | Turnišče | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 29 | Grad | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -3 | 0 |
| 30 | Čarda Martjanci | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 31 | Tromejnik Montpreis | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -5 | 0 |
| 32 | Velesovo Cerklje | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -7 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Limbuš Pekre win, at 66.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 3–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 83% and over 2.5 goals at 90%.
A 66% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.