· Analysis updated 15:57 UTC
Linare vs LDF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.36 expected goals for Linare and 1.02 for LDF, a combined total of 2.37. That distribution gives Linare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 42% for over 2.5 goals and 47% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Home/Draw
71.9% probability
Expected goals
1.36 – 1.02
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Linare home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
LDF away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Linare to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 27% / 28% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.36 goals for Linare and 1.02 for LDF, a combined 2.37 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
72%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
56%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.9%
- 1–012.6%
- 0–19.5%
- 0–09.3%
- 2–18.7%
Recent form
Linare
- 2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Matlama · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manonyane · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-03T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Limkokwing University · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Majantja · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Machokha · 3-1 (W)
LDF
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs LCS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Manonyane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Villa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bantu · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Members · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 71.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 47% and over 2.5 goals at 42%.
A 72% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.