Linare vs LMPS Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.13 expected goals for Linare and 0.79 for LMPS, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Linare the largest share of the 1X2 market at 68%, with the draw at 19%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 68% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Linare win

68.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.13 – 0.79

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Linare home form
10 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
LMPS away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 2 of the last 9 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Linare win68%

Draw19%

LMPS win13%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

81%

Double chance X2

32%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score48%

Correct score

2–012.3%
1–011.5%
2–19.7%
1–19.1%
3–08.7%

Recent form

Linare

2026-10-18T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Matlama · 0-2 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Manonyane · 1-0 (W)
2026-10-03T11:45:00.000Z · A vs Limkokwing University · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Majantja · 3-2 (W)
2026-09-06T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Machokha · 3-1 (W)

LMPS

2026-10-24T13:00:00.000Z · A vs LDF · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-17T13:00:00.000Z · H vs LCS · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs SC Villa · 1-1 (D)
2026-10-03T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Majantja · 0-1 (L)
2026-09-15T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bantu · 0-1 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-22T13:30:00.000Z · Linare 3-1 LMPS (Premier League)
2026-03-15T11:00:00.000Z · Linare 1-1 LMPS (Premier League)
2025-11-09T10:00:00.000Z · Linare 1-0 LMPS (Premier League)
2025-04-12T13:00:00.000Z · Linare 1-0 LMPS (Premier League)
2024-10-30T13:00:00.000Z · Linare 0-1 LMPS (Premier League)
2024-04-07T13:00:00.000Z · Linare 2-0 LMPS (Premier League)
2024-01-14T14:00:00.000Z · Linare 0-2 LMPS (Premier League)
2023-04-09T13:00:00.000Z · Linare 2-0 LMPS (Premier League)
2022-10-09T13:00:00.000Z · Linare 0-0 LMPS (Premier League)

Premier League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Matlama	8	6	1	1	9	19
2	Lijabatho	7	5	2	0	14	17
3	Majantja	8	5	2	1	8	17
4	Bantu	7	5	1	1	11	16
5	Lioli	8	3	5	0	8	14
6	Linare	7	4	1	2	3	13
7	LDF	8	3	4	1	1	13
8	LCS	8	3	2	3	1	11
9	Manonyane	8	2	4	2	3	10
10	Lifofane	8	2	2	4	-5	8
11	Members	7	2	2	3	-5	8
12	Limkokwing University	7	1	3	3	-3	6
13	SC Villa	7	1	1	5	-6	4
14	Machokha	8	1	1	6	-10	4
15	Mzamane	8	1	1	6	-20	4
16	LMPS	8	0	2	6	-9	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Linare win, at 68.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.