Estadio Municipal de Linarejos · Analysis updated 11:35 UTC
Linares Deportivo vs La Unión Atlético Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.62 expected goals for Linares Deportivo and 1.30 for La Unión Atlético, a combined total of 2.92. That distribution gives Linares Deportivo the largest share of the 1X2 market at 45%, with the draw at 24%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 58% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 45% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Linares Deportivo win
45.1% probability
Expected goals
1.62 – 1.30
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Linares Deportivo home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
La Unión Atlético away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Linares Deportivo to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 45%, against 45% / 24% / 31% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.62 goals for Linares Deportivo and 1.30 for La Unión Atlético, a combined 2.92 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
69%
Double chance 12
76%
Double chance X2
55%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–111.4%
- 2–19.2%
- 1–08.8%
- 1–27.4%
- 2–07.1%
Recent form
Linares Deportivo
- 2026-10-04T16:30:00.000Z · A vs Atlético Central · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-26T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Betis II · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-20T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Las Palmas II · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-12T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Estepona · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-06T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Ciudad de Lucena · 1-1 (D)
La Unión Atlético
- 2026-05-03T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Puente Genil · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-04-26T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Extremadura 1924 · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-04-19T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Ucam Murcia · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-04-12T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Real Jaén · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-04-04T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Recreativo Huelva · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Segunda División RFEF - Group 4 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Betis II | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 14 |
| 2 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 3 | Ciudad de Lucena | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Badajoz | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Don Benito | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 13 |
| 6 | Mijas Las Lagunas | 7 | 3 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 12 |
| 7 | Estepona | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 8 | Linares Deportivo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 11 |
| 9 | Puente Genil | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 10 |
| 10 | Tenerife II | 7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 10 |
| 11 | Sevilla Atletico | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 9 |
| 12 | Sanluqueño | 7 | 1 | 4 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 13 | Xerez | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 14 | Marbella | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 15 | Atlético Central | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -5 | 6 |
| 16 | Tamaraceite | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 | Las Palmas II | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -8 | 5 |
| 18 | Antoniano | 7 | 0 | 3 | 4 | -6 | 3 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Linares Deportivo win, at 45.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 58% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.
A 45% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.