Victoria Stadium · Analysis updated 20:05 UTC
Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Europa Point Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.49 expected goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 1.04 for Europa Point, a combined total of 3.53. That distribution gives Lincoln Red Imps FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 69%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 69% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lincoln Red Imps FC win
69.1% probability
Expected goals
2.49 – 1.04
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lincoln Red Imps FC home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Europa Point away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 3 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
86%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
31%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–19.4%
- 2–09.1%
- 3–17.8%
- 3–07.6%
- 1–17.6%
Recent form
Lincoln Red Imps FC
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lynx · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mons Calpe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa Point · 4-0 (W)
Europa Point
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hound Dogs · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions Gibraltar · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-08-23T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Lynx · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · Lincoln Red Imps FC 4-0 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2026-01-10T16:00:00.000Z · Lincoln Red Imps FC 2-1 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2025-09-28T17:30:00.000Z · Lincoln Red Imps FC 7-0 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2024-11-30T18:30:00.000Z · Lincoln Red Imps FC 2-0 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2024-10-30T20:00:00.000Z · Lincoln Red Imps FC 5-0 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2024-04-27T17:30:00.000Z · Lincoln Red Imps FC 4-0 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2024-02-10T18:30:00.000Z · Lincoln Red Imps FC 1-0 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2023-10-21T17:30:00.000Z · Lincoln Red Imps FC 2-1 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2022-10-16T16:30:00.000Z · Lincoln Red Imps FC 10-0 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2022-01-22T15:00:00.000Z · Lincoln Red Imps FC 5-1 Europa Point (Premier Division)
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magpies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | St Joseph S Fc | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Mons Calpe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Glacis United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Lions Gibraltar | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Europa Point | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Europa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | College 1975 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 11 | Lynx | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lincoln Red Imps FC win, at 69.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 69% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.