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Thursday, 6 August 2026

Europa Sports Park · Referee Aliyar Aghayev, Azerbaijan · Analysis updated 14:17 UTC

Lincoln Red Imps FC vs Omonia Nicosia Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.48 expected goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 1.26 for Omonia Nicosia, a combined total of 2.74. That distribution gives Lincoln Red Imps FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 43%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 52% for over 2.5 goals and 55% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 43% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Home/Draw

67.9% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data38/100

Expected goals

1.48 – 1.26

Model version

poisson-v1

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lincoln Red Imps FC home form
9 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lincoln Red Imps FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 43%, against 43% / 25% / 32% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.48 goals for Lincoln Red Imps FC and 1.26 for Omonia Nicosia, a combined 2.74 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 52% and both teams to score at 55%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%.

Match result (1X2)

Lincoln Red Imps FC win43%

Draw25%

Omonia Nicosia win32%

Double chance 1X

68%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

58%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals76%

Over 2.5 goals52%

Over 3.5 goals30%

Both teams to score55%

Correct score

1–112.0%
1–09.6%
2–18.9%
0–18.1%
1–27.6%

Recent form

Lincoln Red Imps FC

2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 2-0 (W)
2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mons Calpe · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa Point · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-30T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Glacis United · 2-0 (W)

Omonia Nicosia

2026-10-09T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Karmiotissa · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-20T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Krasava Ypsonas · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-16T16:45:00.000Z · H vs Celta Vigo · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Apollon Limassol · 0-0 (D)
2026-09-07T17:00:00.000Z · A vs Aris · 4-1 (W)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

UEFA Europa League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Juventus	2	2	0	0	6	6
2	Bayer Leverkusen	2	2	0	0	6	6
3	Benfica	2	2	0	0	5	6
4	Beşiktaş	2	2	0	0	4	6
5	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	4	6
6	Omonia Nicosia	2	2	0	0	4	6
7	Ferencvarosi TC	2	2	0	0	3	6
8	Lyon	2	2	0	0	2	6
9	Sunderland	2	2	0	0	2	6
10	Olympiakos Piraeus	2	2	0	0	2	6
11	Sparta Praha	2	1	1	0	3	4
12	Union St. Gilloise	2	1	1	0	3	4
13	Rennes	2	1	1	0	1	4
14	Dinamo Zagreb	2	1	1	0	1	4
15	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	3	3
16	AC Milan	2	1	0	1	2	3
17	Jagiellonia	2	1	0	1	1	3
18	OFI	2	1	0	1	1	3
19	Torreense	2	1	0	1	0	3
20	AZ Alkmaar	2	1	0	1	0	3
21	Red Bull Salzburg	2	1	0	1	-3	3
22	Real Sociedad	2	0	1	1	-1	1
23	Lillestrom	2	0	1	1	-1	1
24	Levski Sofia	2	0	1	1	-1	1
25	Hapoel Beer Sheva	2	0	1	1	-1	1
26	Sturm Graz	2	0	1	1	-3	1
27	NEC Nijmegen	2	0	1	1	-5	1
28	Celta Vigo	2	0	0	2	-2	0
29	Anderlecht	2	0	0	2	-2	0
30	1899 Hoffenheim	2	0	0	2	-3	0
31	Plzen	2	0	0	2	-4	0
32	Marseille	2	0	0	2	-4	0
33	Celtic	2	0	0	2	-5	0
34	Ararat-Armenia	2	0	0	2	-5	0
35	Celje	2	0	0	2	-5	0
36	Lech Poznan	2	0	0	2	-8	0

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Home/Draw, at 67.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 55% and over 2.5 goals at 52%.

A 68% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.