Sincil Bank · Referee Tony Harrington, England · Analysis updated 06:07 UTC
Lincoln vs Portsmouth Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.00 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.50 for Portsmouth, a combined total of 3.50. That distribution gives Lincoln the largest share of the 1X2 market at 49%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 68% for over 2.5 goals and 67% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 49% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lincoln win
49.3% probability
Expected goals
2.00 – 1.50
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lincoln home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Portsmouth away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 4 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
71%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
51%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–19.1%
- 2–19.1%
- 1–26.8%
- 2–26.8%
- 3–16.0%
Recent form
Lincoln
- 2026-10-17T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Millwall · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Utd · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-0 (W)
Portsmouth
- 2026-10-20T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Wolves · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Norwich · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Sheffield Utd · 3-2 (W)
- 2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Southampton · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Blackburn · 2-2 (D)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T11:30:00.000Z · Lincoln 1-3 Portsmouth (Championship)
- 2024-04-27T11:30:00.000Z · Lincoln 0-2 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2023-09-23T14:00:00.000Z · Lincoln 1-2 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2023-02-18T15:00:00.000Z · Lincoln 0-0 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2022-08-06T14:00:00.000Z · Lincoln 0-0 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2022-04-15T14:00:00.000Z · Lincoln 2-3 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2021-11-23T19:45:00.000Z · Lincoln 0-3 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2021-01-26T19:00:00.000Z · Lincoln 1-0 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2020-11-03T19:00:00.000Z · Lincoln 1-3 Portsmouth (League One)
- 2020-01-28T19:45:00.000Z · Lincoln 0-2 Portsmouth (League One)
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Middlesbrough | 12 | 7 | 4 | 1 | 10 | 25 |
| 2 | Swansea | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 23 |
| 3 | West Ham | 12 | 6 | 4 | 2 | 17 | 22 |
| 4 | Wolves | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 21 |
| 5 | West Brom | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 21 |
| 6 | Southampton | 12 | 7 | 3 | 2 | 12 | 20 |
| 7 | Birmingham | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 8 | QPR | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 20 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 12 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 20 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Portsmouth | 12 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Sheffield Utd | 12 | 4 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 13 | Millwall | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -1 | 15 |
| 14 | Bristol City | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -3 | 15 |
| 15 | Lincoln | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 15 |
| 16 | Cardiff | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 14 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -3 | 14 |
| 18 | Bolton | 12 | 4 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 14 |
| 19 | Charlton | 12 | 3 | 5 | 4 | -7 | 14 |
| 20 | Norwich | 12 | 4 | 0 | 8 | -2 | 12 |
| 21 | Watford | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -10 | 11 |
| 22 | Burnley | 12 | 1 | 5 | 6 | -8 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 12 | 1 | 4 | 7 | -11 | 7 |
| 24 | Preston | 12 | 1 | 2 | 9 | -15 | 5 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lincoln win, at 49.3%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 67% and over 2.5 goals at 68%.
A 49% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.