LNER stadium · Analysis updated 16:13 UTC
Lincoln vs QPR Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.75 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.90 for QPR, a combined total of 2.65. That distribution gives QPR the largest share of the 1X2 market at 65%, with the draw at 21%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 49% for over 2.5 goals and 45% for both teams to score, with 0–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 65% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
QPR win
64.6% probability
Expected goals
0.75 – 1.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lincoln home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
QPR away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates QPR to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 65%, against 14% / 21% / 65% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.75 goals for Lincoln and 1.90 for QPR, a combined 2.65 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
35%
Double chance 12
79%
Double chance X2
86%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–113.4%
- 0–212.8%
- 1–110.1%
- 1–29.6%
- 0–38.1%
Recent form
Lincoln
- 2026-10-14T19:00:00.000Z · H vs West Ham · 0-6 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Utd · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-0 (W)
QPR
- 2026-10-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Derby · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-10-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs West Ham · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Preston · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-12T11:30:00.000Z · A vs West Brom · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-09T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Charlton · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Championship table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swansea | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 23 |
| 2 | Middlesbrough | 10 | 6 | 3 | 1 | 6 | 21 |
| 3 | West Ham | 10 | 5 | 4 | 1 | 17 | 19 |
| 4 | Birmingham | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 5 | QPR | 10 | 4 | 5 | 1 | 6 | 17 |
| 6 | Wolves | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 17 |
| 7 | West Brom | 10 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 17 |
| 8 | Southampton | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 11 | 16 |
| 9 | Stoke City | 10 | 5 | 1 | 4 | 1 | 16 |
| 10 | Blackburn | 10 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 2 | 15 |
| 11 | Millwall | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 14 |
| 12 | Bristol City | 10 | 4 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 14 |
| 13 | Charlton | 10 | 3 | 5 | 2 | -3 | 14 |
| 14 | Bolton | 10 | 4 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 13 |
| 15 | Sheffield Utd | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 0 | 12 |
| 16 | Portsmouth | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | -1 | 11 |
| 17 | Wrexham | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -4 | 11 |
| 18 | Lincoln | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -10 | 11 |
| 19 | Cardiff | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 1 | 10 |
| 20 | Norwich | 10 | 3 | 0 | 7 | -3 | 9 |
| 21 | Burnley | 11 | 1 | 5 | 5 | -5 | 8 |
| 22 | Watford | 10 | 2 | 2 | 6 | -11 | 8 |
| 23 | Derby | 10 | 1 | 3 | 6 | -10 | 6 |
| 24 | Preston | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -12 | 4 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is QPR win, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 45% and over 2.5 goals at 49%.
A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.