Lincoln vs Southampton Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.03 expected goals for Lincoln and 1.58 for Southampton, a combined total of 2.60. That distribution gives Southampton the largest share of the 1X2 market at 50%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 48% for over 2.5 goals and 51% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 50% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Southampton win

50.1% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.03 – 1.58

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lincoln home form
2 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Southampton away threat
Scored in 4 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Southampton to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 50%, against 25% / 25% / 50% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.03 goals for Lincoln and 1.58 for Southampton, a combined 2.60 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lincoln win25%

Draw25%

Southampton win50%

Double chance 1X

50%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

75%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals73%

Over 2.5 goals48%

Over 3.5 goals26%

Both teams to score51%

Correct score

1–112.0%
0–111.7%
1–29.4%
0–29.2%
1–07.6%

Recent form

Lincoln

2026-10-10T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Sheffield Utd · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bristol City · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Preston · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Bournemouth · 0-4 (L)

Southampton

2026-10-11T11:00:00.000Z · H vs Portsmouth · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Wrexham · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bristol City · 4-1 (W)
2026-09-08T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Swansea · 3-1 (W)
2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

2026-09-05T11:30:00.000Z · Lincoln 1-1 Southampton (Championship)
2022-12-20T19:45:00.000Z · Lincoln 1-2 Southampton (League Cup)

Championship table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Swansea	10	7	2	1	9	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	6	3	1	6	21
3	Birmingham	10	4	5	1	6	17
4	West Brom	10	5	2	3	2	17
5	West Ham	9	4	4	1	11	16
6	Stoke City	10	5	1	4	1	16
7	Blackburn	10	4	3	3	2	15
8	QPR	9	3	5	1	3	14
9	Wolves	9	4	2	3	2	14
10	Millwall	10	4	2	4	0	14
11	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-2	14
12	Charlton	10	3	5	2	-3	14
13	Southampton	9	5	2	2	10	13
14	Bolton	10	4	1	5	-3	13
15	Sheffield Utd	9	3	3	3	1	12
16	Wrexham	10	2	5	3	-4	11
17	Lincoln	9	3	2	4	-4	11
18	Cardiff	10	2	4	4	1	10
19	Norwich	9	3	0	6	-2	9
20	Portsmouth	8	2	2	4	-2	8
21	Burnley	10	1	5	4	-4	8
22	Watford	10	2	2	6	-11	8
23	Derby	9	1	3	5	-7	6
24	Preston	10	1	1	8	-12	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Southampton win, at 50.1%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 51% and over 2.5 goals at 48%.

A 50% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.