Linense vs Marília Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.97 expected goals for Linense and 0.70 for Marília, a combined total of 2.67. That distribution gives Linense the largest share of the 1X2 market at 67%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 50% for over 2.5 goals and 43% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 14%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 67% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Linense win

67.4% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.97 – 0.70

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Linense home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Marília away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Linense to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 67%, against 67% / 20% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.97 goals for Linense and 0.70 for Marília, a combined 2.67 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Linense win67%

Draw20%

Marília win12%

Double chance 1X

88%

Double chance 12

80%

Double chance X2

33%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals75%

Over 2.5 goals50%

Over 3.5 goals28%

Both teams to score43%

Correct score

1–013.7%
2–013.5%
1–19.5%
2–19.4%
3–08.9%

Recent form

Linense

2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · H vs Bandeirante SP · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-15T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Marília · 1-0 (W)
2026-08-09T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Grêmio Prudente · 5-2 (W)
2026-08-03T22:30:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Prudente · 0-0 (D)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Marília · 3-1 (W)

Marília

2026-08-22T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Grêmio Prudente · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-15T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Linense · 0-1 (L)
2026-08-11T22:30:00.000Z · H vs Bandeirante SP · 1-1 (D)
2026-08-01T22:00:00.000Z · A vs Bandeirante SP · 1-3 (L)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Linense · 1-3 (L)

Head-to-head

2026-08-15T22:30:00.000Z · Linense 1-0 Marília (Copa Paulista)
2026-07-26T13:00:00.000Z · Linense 3-1 Marília (Copa Paulista)
2021-05-25T18:00:00.000Z · Linense 0-1 Marília (Paulista - A3)
2020-01-25T22:30:00.000Z · Linense 1-0 Marília (Paulista - A3)

Copa Paulista table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	São José EC	12	6	5	1	8	23
2	União São João	14	4	9	1	4	21
3	Primavera SP	10	5	3	2	14	18
4	Grêmio Prudente	12	5	3	4	2	18
5	Linense	8	4	3	1	7	15
6	EC São Bernardo	8	4	0	4	4	12
7	Noroeste	10	2	6	2	-1	12
8	Juventus	8	3	2	3	5	11
9	Bandeirante SP	8	3	2	3	-1	11
10	Comercial	10	3	2	5	-2	11
11	Santo André	6	3	1	2	-1	10
12	Paulista	8	3	1	4	-6	10
13	XV de Piracicaba	6	1	3	2	-2	6
14	Marília	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Oeste	6	1	1	4	-7	4
16	São Caetano	8	0	2	6	-19	2

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Linense win, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.

It puts both teams scoring at 43% and over 2.5 goals at 50%.

A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.