· Analysis updated 16:21 UTC
Linense vs Tomares Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.16 expected goals for Linense and 1.32 for Tomares, a combined total of 2.48. That distribution gives Tomares the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 27%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 45% for over 2.5 goals and 50% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Draw/Away
67.4% probability
Expected goals
1.16 – 1.32
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Linense home form
9 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Tomares to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 33% / 27% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.16 goals for Linense and 1.32 for Tomares, a combined 2.48 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 45% and both teams to score at 50%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 13%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
60%
Double chance 12
73%
Double chance X2
67%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–112.8%
- 0–111.1%
- 1–09.7%
- 1–28.5%
- 0–08.4%
Recent form
Linense
- 2026-10-18T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Cádiz II · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-10-11T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Utrera · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-10-04T16:00:00.000Z · A vs Pozoblanco · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-09-27T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Conil · 3-1 (W)
- 2026-09-20T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Dos Hermanas · 1-3 (L)
Tomares
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Tercera División RFEF - Group 10 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dos Hermanas | 7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | 12 | 16 |
| 2 | Utrera | 6 | 5 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 15 |
| 3 | Betis C | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 6 | 14 |
| 4 | Tomares | 7 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 14 |
| 5 | Portuense | 7 | 4 | 1 | 2 | 6 | 13 |
| 6 | Pozoblanco | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 11 |
| 7 | San Roque Lepe | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 11 |
| 8 | Xerez Deportivo | 7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 11 |
| 9 | Chiclana | 7 | 2 | 3 | 2 | -1 | 9 |
| 10 | Conil | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -5 | 9 |
| 11 | Egabrense | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 8 |
| 12 | Ceuta II | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -4 | 8 |
| 13 | Linense | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 14 | Recreativo Huelva | 7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -6 | 7 |
| 15 | Cádiz II | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 6 |
| 16 | Bollullos | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -3 | 5 |
| 17 | Sevilla III | 7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 5 |
| 18 | Córdoba II | 6 | 0 | 2 | 4 | -7 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 67.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 50% and over 2.5 goals at 45%.
A 67% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.