· Analysis updated 09:12 UTC
Linfield W vs Larne W Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 4.50 expected goals for Linfield W and 1.16 for Larne W, a combined total of 5.66. That distribution gives Linfield W the largest share of the 1X2 market at 89%, with the draw at 7%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 88% for over 2.5 goals and 65% for both teams to score, with 4–1 the single most likely scoreline at 7%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 89% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Linfield W win
88.8% probability
Expected goals
4.50 – 1.16
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Linfield W home form
10 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Larne W away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Linfield W to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 89%, against 89% / 7% / 5% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 4.50 goals for Linfield W and 1.16 for Larne W, a combined 5.66 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
96%
Double chance 12
93%
Double chance X2
11%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 4–16.9%
- 5–16.2%
- 3–16.1%
- 4–06.0%
- 5–05.4%
Recent form
Linfield W
- 2026-09-07T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Glentoran BU W · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-04T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lisburn Rangers W · 2-5 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Crusaders W · 7-1 (W)
- 2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Derry City W · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-10T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Cliftonville W · 1-3 (L)
Larne W
- 2026-09-25T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Derry City W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-09-18T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders Strikers W · 2-3 (L)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Crusaders Strikers W · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Lisburn Rangers W · 1-5 (L)
- 2026-08-14T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Glentoran BU W · 1-7 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premiership Women table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Crusaders W | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 10 |
| 2 | Glentoran BU W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 17 | 9 |
| 3 | Cliftonville W | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 13 | 9 |
| 4 | Linfield W | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 13 | 6 |
| 5 | Derry City W | 5 | 2 | 0 | 3 | -2 | 6 |
| 6 | Lisburn Ladies W | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | -22 | 4 |
| 7 | Larne W | 5 | 0 | 2 | 3 | -19 | 2 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Linfield W win, at 88.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 4–1.
It puts both teams scoring at 65% and over 2.5 goals at 88%.
A 89% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.