· Analysis updated 13:39 UTC
Linlithgow Rose vs Musselburgh Athletic Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.40 expected goals for Linlithgow Rose and 0.90 for Musselburgh Athletic, a combined total of 3.30. That distribution gives Linlithgow Rose the largest share of the 1X2 market at 71%, with the draw at 17%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 64% for over 2.5 goals and 54% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 71% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
Model pick
Linlithgow Rose win
70.5% probability
Expected goals
2.40 – 0.90
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Linlithgow Rose home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Musselburgh Athletic away threat
Scored in 2 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Linlithgow Rose to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 71%, against 71% / 17% / 12% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.40 goals for Linlithgow Rose and 0.90 for Musselburgh Athletic, a combined 3.30 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
88%
Double chance 12
83%
Double chance X2
30%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–010.6%
- 2–19.6%
- 1–08.9%
- 3–08.5%
- 1–18.0%
Recent form
Linlithgow Rose
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Clydebank · 0-1 (L)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bo'ness United · 4-1 (W)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Broxburn Athletic · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · H vs Dunipace · 4-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs East Stirlingshire · 4-2 (W)
Musselburgh Athletic
- 2026-10-17T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Broxburn Athletic · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Lossiemouth · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-26T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Tranent Juniors · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Berwick Rangers · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T18:45:00.000Z · A vs Hill Of Beath Hawthorn · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Football League - Lowland League table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kilwinning Rangers | 12 | 10 | 0 | 2 | 24 | 30 |
| 2 | Tranent Juniors | 11 | 8 | 2 | 1 | 9 | 26 |
| 3 | Linlithgow Rose | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 25 |
| 4 | Hill Of Beath Hawthorn | 11 | 8 | 1 | 2 | 5 | 25 |
| 5 | Broxburn Athletic | 11 | 7 | 3 | 1 | 7 | 24 |
| 6 | Clydebank | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 16 | 23 |
| 7 | Pollok | 10 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 23 |
| 8 | Largs Thistle | 11 | 7 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 23 |
| 9 | Auchinleck Talbot | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 23 | 22 |
| 10 | Caledonian Braves | 11 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 22 |
| 11 | Brechin | 10 | 7 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 22 |
| 12 | Lochee United | 11 | 6 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 20 |
| 13 | Bonnyrigg Rose Athletic | 10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 19 |
| 14 | Johnstone Burgh | 11 | 5 | 4 | 2 | 6 | 19 |
| 15 | Celtic II | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 8 | 17 |
| 16 | Cumnock Juniors | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 6 | 17 |
| 17 | Civil Service Strollers | 11 | 5 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 17 |
| 18 | Bo'ness United | 11 | 5 | 1 | 5 | -3 | 16 |
| 19 | Troon FC | 12 | 5 | 0 | 7 | -2 | 15 |
| 20 | East Stirlingshire | 11 | 3 | 2 | 6 | -7 | 11 |
| 21 | Gretna 2008 | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -8 | 11 |
| 22 | Cowdenbeath | 10 | 3 | 1 | 6 | -2 | 10 |
| 23 | Cumbernauld Colts | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | -3 | 10 |
| 24 | Musselburgh Athletic | 11 | 2 | 4 | 5 | -5 | 10 |
| 25 | Renfrew | 11 | 3 | 1 | 7 | -10 | 10 |
| 26 | Beith | 12 | 2 | 3 | 7 | -16 | 9 |
| 27 | Albion Rovers | 11 | 2 | 2 | 7 | -12 | 8 |
| 28 | Gala Fairydean Rovers | 10 | 2 | 0 | 8 | -9 | 6 |
| 29 | Berwick Rangers | 10 | 1 | 2 | 7 | -9 | 5 |
| 30 | Dunipace | 10 | 1 | 1 | 8 | -18 | 4 |
| 31 | Newton Stewart | 9 | 1 | 1 | 7 | -28 | 4 |
| 32 | Stirling University | 11 | 1 | 0 | 10 | -17 | 3 |
| 33 | Dalbeattie Star | 11 | 0 | 1 | 10 | -33 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Linlithgow Rose win, at 70.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 54% and over 2.5 goals at 64%.
A 71% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.