· Analysis updated 20:23 UTC
Lioli vs LDF Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.25 expected goals for Lioli and 0.65 for LDF, a combined total of 1.90. That distribution gives Lioli the largest share of the 1X2 market at 51%, with the draw at 30%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 30% for over 2.5 goals and 34% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 51% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lioli win
50.9% probability
Expected goals
1.25 – 0.65
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
LDF away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lioli to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 51%, against 51% / 30% / 19% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.25 goals for Lioli and 0.65 for LDF, a combined 1.90 — a tighter, lower-scoring profile.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 30% and both teams to score at 34%, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 19%.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
81%
Double chance 12
70%
Double chance X2
49%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–018.7%
- 0–015.0%
- 1–112.1%
- 2–011.7%
- 0–19.7%
Recent form
Lioli
LDF
- 2026-10-11T13:00:00.000Z · A vs LCS · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-10-03T07:45:00.000Z · H vs Manonyane · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-15T13:30:00.000Z · H vs SC Villa · 1-0 (W)
- 2026-09-06T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Bantu · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-08-30T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Members · 0-0 (D)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier League table
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lioli win, at 50.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 34% and over 2.5 goals at 30%.
A 51% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.