· Analysis updated 10:52 UTC
Lions Gibraltar vs Europa Point Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 2.92 expected goals for Lions Gibraltar and 0.74 for Europa Point, a combined total of 3.65. That distribution gives Lions Gibraltar the largest share of the 1X2 market at 82%, with the draw at 12%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 2–0 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 82% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lions Gibraltar win
81.5% probability
Expected goals
2.92 – 0.74
Model version
poisson-v2
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lions Gibraltar home form
5 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Europa Point away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 6 of the last 10 meetings.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
94%
Double chance 12
88%
Double chance X2
19%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 2–011.0%
- 3–010.7%
- 2–18.1%
- 3–17.9%
- 4–07.8%
Recent form
Lions Gibraltar
- 2026-10-25T18:30:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-10-10T17:30:00.000Z · A vs St Joseph S Fc · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Glacis United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa Point · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hound Dogs · 5-1 (W)
Europa Point
- 2026-10-16T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Magpies · 1-6 (L)
- 2026-10-11T14:30:00.000Z · H vs College 1975 · 7-0 (W)
- 2026-09-19T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Hound Dogs · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Lions Gibraltar · 4-2 (W)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Lincoln Red Imps FC · 0-4 (L)
Head-to-head
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · Lions Gibraltar 2-4 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2026-02-14T18:30:00.000Z · Lions Gibraltar 4-0 Europa Point (Rock Cup)
- 2025-12-07T15:30:00.000Z · Lions Gibraltar 1-2 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2025-08-29T19:00:00.000Z · Lions Gibraltar 3-2 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2025-01-12T15:30:00.000Z · Lions Gibraltar 3-2 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2024-09-29T14:30:00.000Z · Lions Gibraltar 4-1 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2024-02-18T15:30:00.000Z · Lions Gibraltar 0-0 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2023-10-28T17:30:00.000Z · Lions Gibraltar 1-3 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2023-02-25T17:30:00.000Z · Lions Gibraltar 0-0 Europa Point (Premier Division)
- 2023-01-07T17:30:00.000Z · Lions Gibraltar 5-0 Europa Point (Premier Division)
Rock Cup table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | 9 | 12 |
| 2 | Lions Gibraltar | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 7 | 6 |
| 3 | Mons Calpe | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 6 |
| 4 | Glacis United | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 5 | Lynx | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 |
| 6 | Magpies | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 |
| 7 | Hound Dogs | 2 | 0 | 1 | 1 | -2 | 1 |
| 8 | Europa | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 9 | St Joseph S Fc | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -1 | 0 |
| 10 | College 1975 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 11 | Europa Point | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
| 12 | Manchester 62 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -4 | 0 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lions Gibraltar win, at 81.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.
A 82% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.