· Analysis updated 11:21 UTC
Lions Gibraltar vs Lincoln Red Imps FC Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.38 expected goals for Lions Gibraltar and 2.20 for Lincoln Red Imps FC, a combined total of 3.58. That distribution gives Lincoln Red Imps FC the largest share of the 1X2 market at 56%, with the draw at 20%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 69% for over 2.5 goals and 66% for both teams to score, with 1–2 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 56% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lincoln Red Imps FC win
56.2% probability
Expected goals
1.38 – 2.20
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lions Gibraltar home form
5 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Lincoln Red Imps FC away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lincoln Red Imps FC to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 56%, against 24% / 20% / 56% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.38 goals for Lions Gibraltar and 2.20 for Lincoln Red Imps FC, a combined 3.58 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
44%
Double chance 12
80%
Double chance X2
77%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–29.3%
- 1–18.5%
- 1–36.8%
- 0–26.8%
- 2–26.4%
Recent form
Lions Gibraltar
- 2026-09-20T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Glacis United · 0-4 (L)
- 2026-09-12T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Europa Point · 2-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T17:30:00.000Z · H vs Hound Dogs · 5-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T16:00:00.000Z · A vs College 1975 · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-22T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Magpies · 1-1 (D)
Lincoln Red Imps FC
- 2026-10-18T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Lynx · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-10-15T19:00:00.000Z · A vs Brann · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-10-10T14:30:00.000Z · H vs Europa · 2-0 (W)
- 2026-09-13T17:30:00.000Z · A vs Mons Calpe · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-04T19:00:00.000Z · H vs Europa Point · 4-0 (W)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Premier Division table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magpies | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 7 | 11 |
| 2 | St Joseph S Fc | 3 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 10 | 9 |
| 3 | Lincoln Red Imps FC | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 7 |
| 4 | Mons Calpe | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 7 |
| 5 | Glacis United | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 |
| 6 | Lions Gibraltar | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -1 | 7 |
| 7 | Europa Point | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | -3 | 7 |
| 8 | Europa | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | -2 | 5 |
| 9 | College 1975 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 4 |
| 10 | Hound Dogs | 4 | 0 | 1 | 3 | -9 | 1 |
| 11 | Lynx | 5 | 0 | 1 | 4 | -11 | 1 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lincoln Red Imps FC win, at 56.2%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–2.
It puts both teams scoring at 66% and over 2.5 goals at 69%.
A 56% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.