Lions vs Peninsula Power Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.01 expected goals for Lions and 1.25 for Peninsula Power, a combined total of 3.25. That distribution gives Lions the largest share of the 1X2 market at 55%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 63% for over 2.5 goals and 62% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 10%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 55% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lions win

54.9% probability

Low confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

2.01 – 1.25

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lions home form
15 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Peninsula Power away threat
Scored in 6 of their last 7 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lions to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 55%, against 55% / 22% / 24% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 2.01 goals for Lions and 1.25 for Peninsula Power, a combined 3.25 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lions win55%

Draw22%

Peninsula Power win24%

Double chance 1X

77%

Double chance 12

78%

Double chance X2

45%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals84%

Over 2.5 goals63%

Over 3.5 goals41%

Both teams to score62%

Correct score

2–19.7%
1–19.7%
2–07.8%
1–07.8%
3–16.5%

Recent form

Lions

2026-08-30T07:00:00.000Z · H vs Peninsula Power · 4-1 (W)
2026-08-25T09:30:00.000Z · H vs North Sunshine Eagles · 4-0 (W)
2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · A vs Moreton City Excelsior · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-11T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Melbourne City · 2-0 (W)
2026-08-07T08:30:00.000Z · H vs Brisbane Roar II · 4-2 (W)

Peninsula Power

2026-08-30T07:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 1-4 (L)
2026-08-14T09:30:00.000Z · H vs Brisbane City · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-08T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Gold Coast Knights · 2-2 (D)
2026-08-01T08:00:00.000Z · A vs Lions · 0-1 (L)
2026-07-18T06:30:00.000Z · A vs Moreton City Excelsior · 2-2 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Queensland NPL table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lions	22	17	2	3	35	53
2	Peninsula Power	22	13	6	3	22	45
3	Moreton City Excelsior	22	12	3	7	16	39
4	Gold Coast Knights	22	11	5	6	14	38
5	Brisbane City	22	9	7	6	-1	34
6	WDSC Wolves	22	9	6	7	-4	33
7	Eastern Suburbs	22	9	2	11	-1	29
8	Olympic	22	8	2	12	-4	26
9	Magic United	22	7	1	14	-26	22
10	Rochedale Rovers	22	6	3	13	-18	21
11	Gold Coast United	22	6	2	14	-13	20
12	Brisbane Roar II	22	5	1	16	-20	16

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lions win, at 54.9%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 62% and over 2.5 goals at 63%.

A 55% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.