· Analysis updated 15:39 UTC
Lipany vs Humenné Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 1.86 expected goals for Lipany and 0.87 for Humenné, a combined total of 2.73. That distribution gives Lipany the largest share of the 1X2 market at 61%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 51% for over 2.5 goals and 49% for both teams to score, with 1–0 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 61% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Lipany win
60.5% probability
Expected goals
1.86 – 0.87
Model version
poisson-v1
Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lipany home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Humenné away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Lipany to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 61%, against 61% / 22% / 17% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.86 goals for Lipany and 0.87 for Humenné, a combined 2.73 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
83%
Double chance 12
78%
Double chance X2
39%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 1–012.1%
- 2–011.2%
- 1–110.6%
- 2–19.8%
- 3–07.0%
Recent form
Lipany
- 2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs MSK Tesla Stropkov · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Spišská Nová Ves · 3-0 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stará Ľubovňa · 0-3 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slávia TU Košice · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)
Humenné
- 2026-10-03T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Pohronie · 0-2 (L)
- 2026-09-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Žilina II · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Inter Bratislava · 1-1 (D)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Považská Bystrica · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Petržalka · 0-1 (L)
Head-to-head
Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Lipany win, at 60.5%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–0.
It puts both teams scoring at 49% and over 2.5 goals at 51%.
A 61% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.