Lipany vs Poprad Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 2.50 expected goals for Lipany and 1.38 for Poprad, a combined total of 3.88. That distribution gives Lipany the largest share of the 1X2 market at 62%, with the draw at 18%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 74% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 2–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 62% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Lipany win

62.0% probability

Moderate confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

2.50 – 1.38

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lipany home form
12 points from their last 5 home matches in our dataset.
Poprad away threat
Scored in 5 of their last 6 away fixtures.
Head-to-head goals
Both teams scored in 5 of the last 10 meetings.

Match result (1X2)

Lipany win62%

Draw18%

Poprad win20%

Double chance 1X

80%

Double chance 12

82%

Double chance X2

38%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals90%

Over 2.5 goals74%

Over 3.5 goals54%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

2–18.9%
3–17.4%
1–17.1%
2–06.5%
2–26.1%

Recent form

Lipany

2026-09-27T13:30:00.000Z · A vs MSK Tesla Stropkov · 1-1 (D)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · H vs Spišská Nová Ves · 3-0 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Stará Ľubovňa · 0-3 (L)
2026-09-05T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Slávia TU Košice · 2-1 (W)
2026-08-29T14:30:00.000Z · A vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)

Poprad

2026-10-03T15:00:00.000Z · H vs MSK Tesla Stropkov · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-26T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Spišská Nová Ves · 0-2 (L)
2026-09-19T13:30:00.000Z · A vs Stará Ľubovňa · 1-2 (L)
2026-09-13T09:00:00.000Z · A vs Slávia TU Košice · 2-3 (L)
2026-09-05T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Slovan Sabinov · 2-0 (W)

Head-to-head

2026-05-23T12:00:00.000Z · Lipany 0-0 Poprad (3. liga - East)
2025-10-25T11:30:00.000Z · Lipany 0-3 Poprad (3. liga - East)
2025-03-26T15:00:00.000Z · Lipany 0-4 Poprad (3. liga - East)
2024-08-17T15:00:00.000Z · Lipany 3-3 Poprad (3. liga - East)
2023-04-23T14:00:00.000Z · Lipany 1-0 Poprad (3. liga - East)
2022-09-24T13:30:00.000Z · Lipany 5-1 Poprad (3. liga - East)
2022-05-14T14:30:00.000Z · Lipany 1-1 Poprad (3. liga - East)
2021-09-25T13:00:00.000Z · Lipany 1-1 Poprad (3. liga - East)
2019-03-23T14:00:00.000Z · Lipany 2-1 Poprad (2. liga)
2018-08-18T17:00:00.000Z · Lipany 0-7 Poprad (2. liga)

3. liga - East table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Lokomotíva Košice	10	6	3	1	13	21
2	Spartak Medzev	10	6	1	3	6	19
3	Raslavice	10	6	1	3	1	19
4	Stará Ľubovňa	10	5	3	2	9	18
5	Lipany	10	5	2	3	11	17
6	Poprad	10	5	1	4	4	16
7	Partizán Bardejov	10	5	1	4	1	16
8	Spišská Nová Ves	10	5	1	4	1	16
9	MSK Tesla Stropkov	10	4	2	4	4	14
10	Slávia TU Košice	10	4	1	5	1	13
11	Snina	10	2	5	3	-3	11
12	Vranov nad Topľou	10	3	1	6	-15	10
13	Slovan Sabinov	10	1	3	6	-12	6
14	Kežmarok	10	0	1	9	-21	1

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Lipany win, at 62.0%. Its single most likely scoreline is 2–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 74%.

A 62% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.