Lipno Stęszew vs Kalisz Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.40 expected goals for Lipno Stęszew and 1.50 for Kalisz, a combined total of 2.91. That distribution gives Kalisz the largest share of the 1X2 market at 40%, with the draw at 25%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 56% for over 2.5 goals and 59% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 12%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 40% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Draw/Away

64.6% probability

Moderate confidenceLow data42/100

Expected goals

1.40 – 1.50

Model version

poisson-v2

Cold start: only league-table or short-form data was available for these teams.

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lipno Stęszew home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Kalisz away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 5 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Kalisz to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 40%, against 35% / 25% / 40% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.40 goals for Lipno Stęszew and 1.50 for Kalisz, a combined 2.91 — an open game on paper.

Match result (1X2)

Lipno Stęszew win35%

Draw25%

Kalisz win40%

Double chance 1X

60%

Double chance 12

75%

Double chance X2

65%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals79%

Over 2.5 goals56%

Over 3.5 goals33%

Both teams to score59%

Correct score

1–111.5%
1–28.7%
0–18.2%
2–18.1%
1–07.7%

Recent form

Lipno Stęszew

2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bałtyk Koszalin · 2-1 (W)
2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kotwica Kórnik · 1-4 (L)
2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Flota Świnoujście · 1-3 (L)
2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzino · 1-2 (L)
2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Środa · 2-3 (L)

Kalisz

2026-10-17T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Lipno Stęszew · 0-1 (L)
2026-10-10T16:00:00.000Z · H vs Lech Poznań II · 2-4 (L)
2026-10-03T12:00:00.000Z · A vs Stargard Szczeciński · 0-5 (L)
2026-09-27T12:00:00.000Z · H vs Kluczevia Stargard · 1-0 (W)
2026-09-19T10:00:00.000Z · A vs Chemik Bydgoszcz · 1-1 (D)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

III Liga - Group 2 table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Polonia Środa	13	10	3	0	20	33
2	Luzino	13	9	1	3	20	28
3	Wda Świecie	13	7	3	3	2	24
4	Kluczevia Stargard	12	7	1	4	2	22
5	Stargard Szczeciński	13	5	4	4	7	19
6	Bałtyk Koszalin	13	5	4	4	3	19
7	Lech Poznań II	12	5	3	4	0	18
8	Noteć Czarnków	13	5	2	6	0	17
9	Kalisz	13	4	5	4	-2	17
10	Grom Nowy Staw	13	5	1	7	1	16
11	Elana Toruń	13	4	4	5	-3	16
12	Unia Swarzędz	13	4	3	6	1	15
13	Gedania Gdansk	13	3	6	4	0	15
14	Flota Świnoujście	13	4	2	7	-7	14
15	Chemik Bydgoszcz	13	2	6	5	-7	12
16	Victoria Września	13	2	6	5	-11	12
17	Lipno Stęszew	13	3	2	8	-10	11
18	Kotwica Kórnik	13	3	2	8	-16	11

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Draw/Away, at 64.6%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 59% and over 2.5 goals at 56%.

A 65% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.