· Analysis updated 16:52 UTC
Lipno Stęszew vs Polonia Środa Prediction, Odds & Statistics
Our Poisson-based model projects 0.70 expected goals for Lipno Stęszew and 3.13 for Polonia Środa, a combined total of 3.83. That distribution gives Polonia Środa the largest share of the 1X2 market at 84%, with the draw at 10%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 73% for over 2.5 goals and 48% for both teams to score, with 0–3 the single most likely scoreline at 11%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 84% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.
This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.
Model pick
Polonia Środa win
84.4% probability
Expected goals
0.70 – 3.13
Model version
poisson-v2
Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.
Why the model likes this
Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.
Lipno Stęszew home form
3 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Polonia Środa away threat
Scored in 3 of their last 4 away fixtures.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Polonia Środa to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 84%, against 5% / 10% / 84% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 0.70 goals for Lipno Stęszew and 3.13 for Polonia Środa, a combined 3.83 — an open game on paper.
Match result (1X2)
Double chance 1X
16%
Double chance 12
90%
Double chance X2
95%
Goals markets
Correct score
- 0–311.1%
- 0–210.7%
- 0–48.7%
- 1–37.8%
- 1–27.5%
Recent form
Lipno Stęszew
- 2026-09-19T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Bałtyk Koszalin · 2-1 (W)
- 2026-09-12T14:00:00.000Z · A vs Kotwica Kórnik · 1-4 (L)
- 2026-09-05T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Flota Świnoujście · 1-3 (L)
- 2026-08-28T15:00:00.000Z · A vs Luzino · 1-2 (L)
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · H vs Polonia Środa · 2-3 (L)
Polonia Środa
- 2026-09-26T10:00:00.000Z · H vs Elana Toruń · 2-2 (D)
- 2026-09-19T13:00:00.000Z · A vs Noteć Czarnków · 0-0 (D)
- 2026-09-11T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Unia Swarzędz · 4-3 (W)
- 2026-09-05T11:00:00.000Z · A vs Grom Nowy Staw · 4-4 (D)
- 2026-09-01T17:00:00.000Z · H vs Sandecja Nowy Sącz · 3-2 (W)
Head-to-head
- 2026-08-22T15:00:00.000Z · Lipno Stęszew 2-3 Polonia Środa (III Liga - Group 2)
- 2026-04-04T11:00:00.000Z · Lipno Stęszew 1-1 Polonia Środa (III Liga - Group 2)
- 2026-02-07T15:00:00.000Z · Lipno Stęszew 0-3 Polonia Środa (Friendlies Clubs)
- 2025-09-12T17:00:00.000Z · Lipno Stęszew 0-2 Polonia Środa (III Liga - Group 2)
III Liga - Group 2 table
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Polonia Środa | 14 | 10 | 4 | 0 | 20 | 34 |
| 2 | Luzino | 14 | 9 | 1 | 4 | 18 | 28 |
| 3 | Wda Świecie | 14 | 8 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 27 |
| 4 | Kluczevia Stargard | 13 | 7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 23 |
| 5 | Stargard Szczeciński | 14 | 6 | 4 | 4 | 9 | 22 |
| 6 | Lech Poznań II | 13 | 6 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 21 |
| 7 | Noteć Czarnków | 14 | 6 | 2 | 6 | 1 | 20 |
| 8 | Bałtyk Koszalin | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | 2 | 19 |
| 9 | Elana Toruń | 14 | 5 | 4 | 5 | -2 | 19 |
| 10 | Unia Swarzędz | 14 | 5 | 3 | 6 | 3 | 18 |
| 11 | Gedania Gdansk | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | 1 | 18 |
| 12 | Kalisz | 14 | 4 | 6 | 4 | -2 | 18 |
| 13 | Grom Nowy Staw | 14 | 5 | 1 | 8 | -1 | 16 |
| 14 | Flota Świnoujście | 14 | 4 | 3 | 7 | -7 | 15 |
| 15 | Chemik Bydgoszcz | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -9 | 12 |
| 16 | Victoria Września | 14 | 2 | 6 | 6 | -12 | 12 |
| 17 | Lipno Stęszew | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -11 | 11 |
| 18 | Kotwica Kórnik | 14 | 3 | 2 | 9 | -18 | 11 |
Prediction conclusion
The model's leading selection is Polonia Środa win, at 84.4%. Its single most likely scoreline is 0–3.
It puts both teams scoring at 48% and over 2.5 goals at 73%.
A 84% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.
Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.