Lisburn Distillery vs Dergview Prediction, Odds & Statistics

Our Poisson-based model projects 1.63 expected goals for Lisburn Distillery and 2.00 for Dergview, a combined total of 3.63. That distribution gives Dergview the largest share of the 1X2 market at 47%, with the draw at 22%. Goals markets follow the same shape: 70% for over 2.5 goals and 69% for both teams to score, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%. Probabilities are statistical estimates and carry meaningful uncertainty — a 47% favourite still loses or draws a large share of the time.

This match has finished. The figures below are the model's estimate for the fixture, kept on the page for reference and study — they are not a betting tip, and nothing here has been edited after the final whistle.

Model pick

Dergview win

46.8% probability

Low confidencePartial model70/100

Expected goals

1.63 – 2.00

Model version

poisson-v2

Probabilities are statistical estimates, not guarantees.

Why the model likes this

Each point below is derived from this fixture's own data — recent results, home and away splits, scoring and defensive rates and head-to-head history where it exists. Points only appear when the underlying data supports them.

Lisburn Distillery home form
1 points from their last 4 home matches in our dataset.
Most likely outcome
The model rates Dergview to win the strongest 1X2 selection at 47%, against 32% / 22% / 47% for home, draw and away.
Expected goals balance
Projected 1.63 goals for Lisburn Distillery and 2.00 for Dergview, a combined 3.63 — an open game on paper.
Goals markets
Over 2.5 goals lands at 70% and both teams to score at 69%, with 1–1 the single most likely scoreline at 9%.

Match result (1X2)

Lisburn Distillery win32%

Draw22%

Dergview win47%

Double chance 1X

53%

Double chance 12

79%

Double chance X2

68%

Goals markets

Over 1.5 goals88%

Over 2.5 goals70%

Over 3.5 goals49%

Both teams to score69%

Correct score

1–18.7%
1–28.7%
2–17.0%
2–27.0%
1–35.8%

Recent form

Lisburn Distillery

2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Moyola Park · 0-6 (L)
2026-04-28T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Strabane Athletic · 4-4 (D)
2026-04-25T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Ballymacash Rangers · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-18T14:00:55.000Z · H vs Knockbreda · 3-3 (D)
2026-04-11T14:00:45.000Z · H vs Dergview · 1-3 (L)

Dergview

2026-08-01T13:00:00.000Z · H vs Bangor · 1-1 (D)
2026-07-18T14:00:00.000Z · H vs Dungannon Swifts · 0-3 (L)
2026-07-09T18:45:00.000Z · A vs H&W Welders · 0-3 (L)
2026-05-01T18:00:00.000Z · A vs Ballyclare Comrades · 1-3 (L)
2026-04-23T18:45:43.000Z · H vs Newry City AFC · 2-3 (L)

Head-to-head

Head-to-head history is temporarily unavailable. The prediction is unaffected — it is built from current form, home and away performance, goals data and competition statistics.

Premier Intermediate League table

Full league page →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GD	Pts
1	Strabane Athletic	25	15	3	7	11	48
2	Dollingstown	26	14	4	8	18	46
3	Moyola Park	25	13	4	8	34	43
4	Rathfriland	22	13	2	7	30	41
5	Newry City AFC	24	12	5	7	8	41
6	Ballymacash Rangers	24	13	1	10	11	40
7	Dergview	23	10	6	7	5	36
8	Ballyclare Comrades	26	11	3	12	-2	36
9	Oxford Sunnyside	25	11	2	12	6	35
10	Portstewart	25	9	7	9	-1	34
11	Knockbreda	25	9	6	10	-6	33
12	Coagh United	26	7	6	13	-19	27
13	Lisburn Distillery	25	7	4	14	-16	25
14	Banbridge Town	23	1	1	21	-79	4

Prediction conclusion

The model's leading selection is Dergview win, at 46.8%. Its single most likely scoreline is 1–1.

It puts both teams scoring at 69% and over 2.5 goals at 70%.

A 47% selection is expected to miss in the remaining share of matches, and football regularly produces red cards, injuries and tactical changes the data cannot see. Treat this as a probability, not a forecast of the result.

Methodology Results Log

Predictions are statistical estimates generated from historical and current team data. They are provided for information and entertainment only and are not betting advice. 18+ only.